There’s no sugarcoating it: Donald Trump’s victory on Tuesday is a major setback for many anti-poverty policies. With a Republican majority in the Senate (and possibly the House as well), there’s little doubt that spending cuts will be up for debate, and tried-and-failed ideas like imposing work requirements on welfare recipients will return to the table.
During the campaign, Trump promised that he would not cut Social Security. But his proposed changes in the program—such as Dr Cut taxes on Social Security benefits – will likely result Sooner rather than reduced benefits. Other tax-cut ideas, such as his “no tax on tips” plan, would likely be a bigger win for big business than for workers because it could lower wages.
However, none of this means there is only room for pessimism. As my colleague Dylan Matthews has written , Trump’s first term shows that any major cuts will be difficult to pass, even with a Republican majority. And there’s reason to believe some programs might even pass, such as some version of an expanded child tax credit There was bipartisan support In the past (Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, for example), has supported expansion Child Tax Credit.)
Tuesday’s election results also showed signs of hope — a roadmap for what the anti-poverty agenda might look like under a second Trump presidency. Because even though the Democrats lost the presidency, voters didn’t reject their policies. In various states, Voters supported progressive priorities Through ballot measures, including raising the minimum wage, paid sick leave, and expanded labor rights. If Democrats want to have a productive four years under Trump, there’s a lot they can do at the state level — if not in the legislature, then at the ballot box.
A positive election result? Voters raised the minimum wage.
In five states, voters must have a say in their minimum wage laws.
For example, in Missouri, Voters passed a minimum wage increaseIt will increase from $12.30 to $15 an hour by 2026. The new law sets the minimum wage in line with inflation, meaning workers don’t have to wait for another law to pass to keep pace with rising costs. More than 562,000 workers will see their wages increase as a result of the legislation. According to the Missouri budget project.
Alaskans also voted Raising the minimum wage $15 an hour, from $11.73, and measurements are on track to pass. It will increase incomes for about 10 percent of the workforce, According to the Economic Policy Institute. In California, voters were asked to raise the state’s minimum wage to $18 an hour, but the results are still too close to call.
In Arizona, voters are protected by workers’ compensation Widely rejected A measure that would allow employers to reduce base wages for tipped workers. In Massachusetts, however, it was a different story. voters A ballot measure did not approve That will support tipped workers. Tipped workers in the state are now paid $6.75 an hour, but if the measure passed, they would have The standard minimum wage is givenwhich now sits at $15.
The benefits of a higher minimum wage are clear: workers at the bottom automatically see their incomes rise. But efforts to raise the minimum wage often face opposition as business interests argue that it will result in job losses or higher prices. In the case of Massachusetts the proposal was Strongly opposed by restaurant lobbying groups.
The evidence points to a different reality. In states that saw minimum wage increases, there were Little to no effect on the number of jobs. There is some research Even shown That minimum wage increase Also there can be higher employment Partly in certain labor markets because they attract more workers. And states that have gotten rid of the minimum wage Saw a low poverty rate Among tipped workers compared to non-tipped states.
Recent research From the Center on Wage and Employment Dynamics at the University of California, Berkeley, found That a higher minimum wage does not necessarily lead to significantly higher prices. After California Raised the minimum wage For fast food workers up to $20 an hour earlier this year, employment has remained stable and prices haven’t changed dramatically. According to the survey, popular menu items are about 3.7 percent more expensive — about a 15-cent increase for a $4 hamburger.
The next four years will be about small victories
It is worth noting that during Trump’s first term, when Democrats controlled the House, former Pres signed Some of the major anti-poverty measures in the law include rent assistance, increased unemployment benefits and stimulus checks. Of course, it was precipitated by a pandemic, a global catastrophe that we hope not to see repeated anytime soon. Hence, it is very unlikely that such a policy will be passed at the federal level in the next four years.
This is why Democratic lawmakers and anti-poverty advocates must focus on the state level to deliver meaningful improvements in people’s lives. Some of the ballot measures on Tuesday Also includes provisions Requiring employers to offer their workers paid sick leave has shown that there is a public appetite for policies that will reduce poverty. And when Massachusetts voters rejected repealing the minimum wage for tipped workers, They passed a ballot measure which allows rideshare drivers to unionize.
Democrats should capitalize on this because it can really make a big difference. Although the federal minimum wage, which is $7.25 an hour, has not changed in 15 years, At least 30 states and Washington, DCA higher minimum wage has been implemented.
Sometimes, big breakthroughs don’t come with a major legislative overhaul in Congress. They can also be small winning streaks. And we should take them wherever possible.
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