In the run-up to President-elect Donald Trump’s 2024 victory, misinformation has spread online — including theories — claiming the election was rigged in his favor. About absent votes And Dysfunction of voting machines.
As was the case with the election denial after the 2020 elections, these conspiracy theories about electoral fraud are false. According to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the federal agency that oversees election system risks, there were no signs of machine tampering or hacking that could have affected the outcome of the race.
CISA Director Jane Easterly said in a statement.
While it’s true that current vote totals are lower than in 2020, that’s not because votes are missing — several ballots are still being tabulated and final counts aren’t yet available.
It is worth noting that there is a big difference between 2020 and the misinformation being spread at this time. During the last cycle, Trump was one of the main people perpetuating lies about election theft and fraud. Powerful voices in the GOP — including senators and House members — echoed the claims.
This cycle, Vice President Kamala Harris has already conceded the election, and Democratic leaders, including President Joe Biden, have emphasized the need for a peaceful transfer of power. Instead this week the misinformation seems to be coming from online observers — lots of them Small account — disappointed election results, or interested Revive the claim of election denial from 2020.
There is no evidence to back up the “missing ballot” conspiracy theory
A conspiracy theory that has been circulating online is that votes are missing this cycle because the count so far is lower than in 2020. In reality, that’s because votes are still being counted — especially in populous states like California, which rely heavily on mail-in ballots.
Observers on both sides of the aisle have floated this theory. who Reasons sympathetic to Democrats This is proof that Trump cheated and the votes are missing from the final count. Those who sympathize with Republicans Say this is more evidence that something went wrong in 2020 and extra votes were counted that year.
Neither is correct, experts insist.
“Both of these are false. They’re both completely misinterpretations of the data,” David Baker, founder and executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, a nonprofit that works on election administration, told Vox.
Claim: 20 million fewer votes were cast in 2024 than in 2020
Reality: The final counting of these elections is yet to be completed and may take several weeks. That’s because several states, including California, Nevada and Arizona, continue to have a mail-in ballot process. Consequently, comparing current vote totals with 2020 votes is not an accurate method.
“Thanks to slow ballot counting outside much of the West, millions of votes still need to be added to the final vote total,” UCLA election law professor Rick Hassen told Vox. “When all is said and done, the turnout will probably be about the same as the turnout in the last election.”
The changing poll numbers are proof of this dynamic. As Gabrielle Sterling, chief operating officer of the Georgia Secretary of State’s office, noted Friday, the total difference in votes between 2024 and 2020 has already changed: Wednesday’s difference was 20 million votes, but it was down to 15. Millions of votes were counted as more ballots were counted on Thursday.
As of early Friday afternoon, An estimated 91.8 percent of the vote The calculations were made according to the New York Times. That totaled 144.7 million votes, including 69.2 million for Harris and 73.5 million for Trump.
Given that estimate, a total of about 157.6 million total votes should be cast when the full count is complete.
This number is equal to the total votes of 2020. When 100 percent of the votes were counted in 2020, a total of 155.5 million votes were cast, including 81.2 million for Biden and 74.2 million for Trump.
A conspiracy theory about swing states is also false
Another claim has emerged It centers on how Harris lost key swing states, including Michigan and Wisconsin — but Democrats won other seats in those places, including the Senate. Because some voters in this state are showing up shared their ticketsThis has prompted some online observers to push theories that there is something wrong with the voting machines or other parts of the election process.
Claim: The fact that Democrats are losing the presidency, but winning other seats in swing states is proof that something is wrong.
Reality: Although they have become less common over time, split-ticket voters still exist. Recall that in 2020, Biden won a majority of Maine’s electoral votes, while Republican Sen. Susan Collins also won the state. That year, a large portion of the state supported both Biden and Collins.
This cycle, that same dynamic was evident with voters electing Democrats Tammy Baldwin and Elisa Slotkin to the Senate and Trump to the presidency in Wisconsin and Michigan.
“North Carolina had Trump-Stein voters, Michigan had Trump-Slotkin voters, Arizona had Trump-Gallego voters,” Baker said. There is also evidence of a section of the electorate May have supported Trump in places like Wisconsin, but avoided the Senate question entirely.
Historically, split-ticket voters have voted this way because they see supporting different parties as an attempt to moderate or keep a check on each party. In some cases, candidate quality issues can also turn voters away: In North Carolina, for example, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein likely benefited because his opponent, Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, was under fire for making inflammatory statements.
The presence of voters who either split their tickets, or did not vote in a ballot race, is not a sign of fraud.
There are levels of electoral security
Both Baker and Hassen noted that post-election audits will be conducted to determine if there were any irregularities in the counting of votes or the functioning of election machines. In these audits, officials hand-count a selection of paper ballots to ensure that the results reported by the machines are accurate. These audits should guard against any possible malfunctions in the machines — although, again, there was no evidence that such problems affected the results.
By and large, though, both experts stress that the US election system is trustworthy, and that the process went smoothly this year.
“The election was well done,” Haasen asserted.
