Four years after Donald Trump tried to steal the 2020 election and left office in disgrace, the American people returned him to power in the 2024 election.
Major news outlets called most of the key swing states — North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — for Trump late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning, giving him an Electoral College majority. Vice President Kamala Harris has no way to win.
The trend was broader than the swing state; There was a shift towards Trump across the country as his performance improved significantly in the 2020 election.
In fact, it seems quite plausible that Trump could win the national popular vote for the first time, although it will take some time to determine for sure, as it depends on accurate margins in slow-counting states like California.
Trump’s victory would come with a new Republican Senate majority, as Democratic incumbents lost in Ohio and Montana. But as of Wednesday morning it was still unclear which party would control the House of Representatives and it It may take some time to find out
What is clear is that Trump won. How did it happen?
The blame game among Democrats will be fast and furious. But while Harris’s campaign strategy has certainly been second-guessed, the scale and nationwide nature of the swing in Trump’s favor suggests he has an uphill battle all around — because Massive unpopularity Public disapproval of President Joe Biden and his record in office.
Harris inherited a difficult situation from Biden — and ultimately did not overcome it
When Harris unexpectedly entered the presidential race in July after Biden stepped down, he faced three formidable obstacles.
The first was a global trend: in the years following the pandemic, responsible parties Struggled In the world’s richest democracies. The reasons for this are disputed, although inflation after reopening is likely a big one. But to win, Harris must defy this trend.
The second was Biden’s unpopularity. was the president Historically unpopular Long before his disastrous debate with Trump, and after polls showed voters angry about his handling of the economy and immigration. Foreign policy, particularly the Israel-Gaza war that split the Democrats’ coalition, was also an issue. And since Harris served as vice president in his administration, he had to figure out what to do.
Typically, such dynamics point to a “change” election in which the ruling party is booted. In such elections, the opposition can often blame incumbents for the current state of affairs, make vague promises that they will do things differently, and march to victory.
Yet there was nothing ordinary about Harris’ opponent: Donald Trump. With Trump recently serving his own controversial term as president with his own controversial record, this appears to present Harris with an opening. Perhaps he can brand himself as a candidate for change who will break away from the failed politics of the past and offer a fresh, new approach.
This brings us to the third hurdle: Harris’ own record. While running for president in 2019, Harris adopted a set of highly progressive policy positions that Democrats now see as politically toxic, including Banning fracking and criminalizing unauthorized border crossings. So he had a choice: should he stand his ground and promise bold progressive change, or should he confront the center?
In the end, Harris took a kind of middle ground. He downplayed, rejected, or simply avoided many of the progressive policies he espoused in 2019 — but he didn’t deliberately pick fights with the left in pursuit of centrist beliefs, e.g. Bill Clinton did In his 1992 presidential campaign. Harris wanted to keep the Democratic coalition happy, he wanted to please as many people as possible instead of taking sides in any partisan fight.
Even in addressing Biden’s record, Harris tried to strike a balance. He decided not to criticize Biden, throw him under the bus or dissociate himself from him — or the policies of the Biden-Harris administration — in any significant way. He did not admit wrongdoing when pressed about voter anger over inflation and illegal immigration. Rather, he tried to argue that the economy is doing well and blamed Trump for not supporting a bipartisan immigration bill. And he did not relocate to Israel-Gaza.
Harris hoped that he had done enough to present himself as a fresh face, and that Donald Trump’s fundamental unfitness — and his unpopular record on issues like abortion and attempts to steal the 2020 election — would ultimately prove decisive in voters disaffected with both parties.
That hope was in vain.
In the end, most of the public was more upset with inflation under Biden than with Trump’s attempted election theft. And so voters are turning to the candidate they kicked out of office just four years ago.
