With the 2024 presidential election just days away, there is still much uncertainty. But Vox is here to help you navigate through it.
Last week, we asked your lingering questions about the upcoming election. Then we went to senior correspondent Eric Levitz and senior politics reporter Christian Paz to answer nine of them. Here’s what they had to say:
The polls look like there will be a lot of split-ticket votes this year. How common is this historically, and will the scale indicated by the polls be unusually high this year, or is it pretty standard?
– Richard from Dallas
Christian Paz
Split-ticket voting — when one voter chooses a candidate from one party for a statewide or national race and another party from another down-ballot contest — has declined over the past few decades due to polarization. Until 2020, ticket-splitting was becoming rare — but then we saw surprisingly high levels of it in 2022, with voters choosing separately between gubernatorial and Senate candidates, or between those statewide races and local down-ballot races.
This year, if polls are to be believed, we may see more of it in certain swing states like Arizona and North Carolina. In North Carolina, ticket-splitting is the norm – they have a history of electing Republican presidents but Democratic governors.
Eric Levitz
yes That said, there was enough ticket-splitting in 2020 that it could have really big consequences. For example, Biden won Maine comfortably but so did Susan Collins.
How will Harris and Trump’s policies affect grocery prices?
– Pam from Jackson, Wyoming
Christian Paz
After the price increase, there is some talk about Harris? But Trump’s tariffs…
Eric Levitz
If Trump were to implement his proposed 10 percent universal tariff — which he would have the power to do without Congress — it would raise the price of every foreign-produced/manufactured food product. So bananas and avocados will immediately become more expensive.
Meanwhile, if he follows through with Stephen Miller’s mass deportation plan, it will create a shortage of labor in the agricultural sector and dramatically raise prices. Surprisingly, Elon Musk — one of Trump’s biggest donors — As admitted In recent days, Trump has said there will be temporary setbacks from his agenda.
If Dan Osborne, an independent, wins his Senate race in Nebraska, he says he won’t caucus with Democrats or Republicans. How will he get the responsibility of the committee? What powers will he have? Do you think he will change his mind if/after he wins?
– Joy from Rockville, Maryland
Christian Paz
Great question. Probably a ton of influence, but not sure how the committee process might work! Eric, will he be basically like Joe Manchin or Kirsten Sinema? Or like Bernie Sanders?
Eric Levitz
This is a great question. Obviously, if Osborne wins, he will do so with the unwavering support of Democratic donors and officials and the opposition of the Republican Party.
One might think that would get him to caucus with Democrats — especially if doing so would give them an effective majority — to secure committee assignments. But with his campaign/PAC currently running ads aligning him with Trump and calling him a “true conservative” in the race, I doubt he sees direct ties to Democrats as politically suicidal. So, I don’t know. Maybe whichever party holds an effective majority is able to trade its vote on a single high-profile piece of legislation for committee appointments. But yeah, Christian, I think he’d be a more pro-labor Manchin.
I wonder what size victory constitutes a “landslide”? Looks like it might be like a 1 percent margin. It doesn’t exactly invite a landslide. What is the deal?
— Kevin from Portland, Oregon
Eric Levitz
I guess there’s a difference between an Electoral College landslide and a “landslide” as colloquially understood. If Trump had won 1 percent of the popular vote in 2020, he would likely have swept every swing state (because the Electoral College was heavily biased toward the GOP that year).
But to call it an electoral landslide would be a bit misleading, as almost half of the country voted against him in this alternative scenario. Like a real landslide due to polarization, I think Reagan’s 1984 reelection Not possible anymore.
Christian Paz
Yes, it’s helpful to divide between popular and electoral college votes here. I don’t know if the landslides we’d see in either category are possible anymore, but if polling error works in favor of Harris or Trump this year, we could see an “Electoral College landslide” that doesn’t actually represent how the public feels. Either candidate could theoretically sweep the battleground states this year, and the result would be 312-226 or 319-219 — not much different than 2020 or 2016.
What about the federal budget deficit? How has it affected the economy during previous administrations of Obama, Trump and Biden, and what are the candidates’ plans for the future, if they even think/talk about it?
— Kirk from Austin, Texas
Eric Levitz
Federal budget deficits under Obama and Trump have mostly been economically beneficial. When the government spends more money in the economy through taxes, it increases the aggregate demand for goods and services – and thus, for workers.
In the wake of the Great Recession, demand remained extremely low for a long time, as households and employers cut back on their spending. Cuts under Obama and Trump helped compensate for this lack of demand, eventually yielding a 2019 economy in which unemployment was near historic lows yet inflation was negligible.
Under Biden, the impact of the deficit is more controversial. Stimulus spending from the American Rescue Plan helped stem the rise in poverty during the Covid crisis and then fueled a historically strong labor market recovery. But it probably contributed to inflation by a small margin. I personally still think this was a net positive: America’s recovery has been stronger than that of other developed countries, even as we have seen comparable price increases. But since we’ve also seen inflation, people can reasonably object.
I don’t think Harris or Trump have developed a plan to correct America’s long-term fiscal imbalances, driven by a combination of the retirement of baby boomers and medical advances — both extending life and increasing use of health care services by senior citizens and lower tax rates.
I think there’s debate over how big a problem the long-term deficit is, but our colleague Dylan Matthews sums up the concern well here.
Christian Paz
I would only add that their plans for the future would both involve more deficit spending, adding to the national debt, albeit to varying degrees. This analysis It comes from a more fiscally conservative think tank, but even the highest-spending plan endorsed by Kamala Harris would rank with Trump’s moderate-spending plan.
If Kamala wins, how can she get more Democratic seats on the Supreme Court?
– MJ from California
Eric Levitz
He needs to carve out a Democratic Senate majority, and then a conservative Supreme Court justice must retire or die.
Christian Paz
Court-packing is off the menu, and likely won’t have a large Democrat Senate majority if they can begin.
Eric Levitz
At this point, the GOP is unlikely to win the Senate. This is one area where Osborne can make a difference. He’s pro-abortion rights, so he’ll likely support Harris’ Supreme Court nominees.
What does the future of public education look like under each candidate’s potential presidency?
– Dave from Bend, Oregon
Christian Paz
Well, Trump wants to get rid of the Department of Education, so there’s that. I think his advisers will probably do this by draining the money and directing public funds to other causes.
Eric Levitz
I think the basic purpose is to reduce federal oversight of public education, devolve power to school districts, and promote vouchers that enable parents to attend private schools. Some people in Trump’s orbit, however, want to increase oversight of public universities — to get the “awakening” out of it.
Christian Paz
Yes, and apparently it may actually require the approval of Congress to get rid of an agency, and it is unclear if he would get the vote.
Eric Levitz
Almost certainly, he won’t. Probably just cut the budget.
Christian Paz
So more bureaucracy will be involved making the task difficult.
Now, for Harris, he’s sending a message for more funding for public schools and a pay raise for public school teachers. Democrats also called for funding for free universal pre-K and Head Start, federal programs that help low-income children and their families.
Eric Levitz
he too In favor of mass student loan forgivenessAnd it has opposed efforts by conservative states to limit how America’s history of white supremacy is taught, though it’s unclear how that position will translate into federal policy.
Which presidential candidate will help Ukraine win the war against Russia? At this point they both seem hesitant.
— Mike from San Rafael, California
Eric Levitz
Harris is definitely more pro-Ukraine than Trump. In my non-expert opinion, however, I doubt that Ukraine can win the war in the sense of regaining control over all of its legal territory. Russia’s advantages in manpower and munitions give it the edge in war losses, I think. Hopefully the next administration will help Ukraine secure favorable terms in a final peace deal.
Christian Paz
Yes, agree. Trump likes to talk about how to solve the war in one day, but offers no plan or vision of how. Will it involve regional concessions? Will the Ukrainians agree?
Which down-ballot questions could make a significant difference? I know we now have more than half the population ready to live in a place where weed is legal, but what other important issues are on various state ballots?
— Evans from Kilauea, Hawaii
Christian Paz
Weed and abortion are two big issues on state ballot measures this year. We have ballot measures raising the minimum wage in California, Arizona, and several other states. Arizona also has a ballot measure aimed at the state’s conservatives and immigration hawks to further criminalize unauthorized border crossings and allow police to arrest illegal immigrants.
Eric Levitz
Nevada is voting on a constitutional amendment that would require voter ID Under state law, however, they would have to pass the measure a second time in the future for it to take effect.
