The 2024 election cycle has produced some stunning and sometimes contradictory narratives about how subgroups of the population may end up voting. The way men and women vote – we can only see a historical gulf – or not. Polls suggest we’re in for the greatest racial realignment since the passage of the Civil Rights Act — or it could be a mirage. Young people may turn out because they are disillusioned and vote third-party — or they may turn out in record numbers for Kamala Harris. More diverse Sun Belt states could pave the way for a Donald Trump victory — but predominantly older and white “blue wall” states could elect the first black female president.
We will know soon. Although election day is only a few days away, At least 60 million people have already voted. Battleground states are hitting or surpassing their records for early voting. And with polls of likely voters still showing an evenly tied race, any combination of factors, events or movements within the electorate could change the outcome.
To that end, I’ve put together a few questions we’ve been tracking over the past year at Vox. Their final answers could determine who wins the White House.
Are there late decisions to be made? And what might change their minds?
The story of the final weeks of the 2024 election has been one of turmoil for undecided voters, with polling numbers dropping in poll after poll. This segment includes two groups: voters who are candidates and undecided voters who may have a preference but are absolutely undecided about voting.
Although we don’t know exactly who these late decision makers are. Could they be the same kind of working class and non-college educated (primarily white) voters who carried Trump to victory in Rust Belt states in 2016 (thus swinging the vote)? Or are they going to be scores of new and young (primarily white) voters who could give Harris an edge in Sun Belt states?
And for all of these subgroups – what kind of message or campaign development might get them to vote that hasn’t already convinced them? Could Harris’ late-game revival of democracy and Trump’s authoritarian bent resonate with them? Could something as racist and extreme rhetoric have made up their minds at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally? Or something like President Joe Biden’s “garbage” gaffe this week that could further support Trump?
Regardless, these late-determinants will be important. they did Broke for Trump He has won each of the last two elections by a wide margin. But this third time things might be different.
Will Harris have a Republican crossover?
Along these lines, Harris’s appeal to the fate of democracy and his juxtaposition of his “to-do” list against Trump’s “enemies” list are clear examples of how the Democrat campaign has zeroed in on Trump-skeptic Republicans as a key piece of resistance. Trump wins. But will these registered Republicans cross party lines, or simply repeat as reluctant Trump voters?
Somewhere between 15 and 20 percent are Republican primary voters Did not vote for TrumpAnd even after he dropped out, a large portion of those voters chose to vote for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. Many of them are women, which explains part of the focus Harris claimed Republican supporters Former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney, her father and former Vice President Dick Cheney and many more Former Never-Trump Republican politician.
Bias is one hell of a drug, however. Republicans, despite personally disliking Trump, routinely stick with their party’s nominee. Harris told these Trump-wary Republicans to keep “”Country over partyBut if they don’t, and Harris’ argument about Trump’s threat to democracy is correct, they may have to “throw the country.” Overthe party
Will Arab American voters turn to Republicans?
The Gaza war, and Israel’s treatment of Palestinians, has been one of the defining issues of the past year, including in the electoral arena. Biden’s handling and response drew a significant amount of resentment from more progressive and left-leaning members of the Democratic coalition, and that resentment appears to have rubbed off on Harris to a lesser degree. This includes a voting group dominant in an important swing state: Michigan’s Arab American voters.
Polls of Arab Americans in particular suggest that these voters will not turn to Harris to the extent that they have encouraged Democratic candidates in the past: an Arab News-YouGov poll this week found Trump leads Harris among Arab Americans 45 to 43. That’s a stark contrast from 2020, when Biden led Trump 24 pointsAnd especially 2016, when Hillary Clinton led Trump by 34 points.
But this was not always the case. Arab American voters before 9/11 Leaning Republican. Only after the GOP Anti-Muslim and anti-Arab This voting segment swung toward the Democrats under George W. Bush, High point in 2004. And since that high point, these voters have leaned toward the GOP, with the share supporting John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Trump rising from 2008 to 2012 and 2020 (with support falling slightly in 2016). The Gaza war could accelerate a latent rightward shift that was already occurring as the GOP shifted its foreign policy priorities, championing conservative culture war issues and economic populism as Democrats became more culturally progressive, including on issues of gender and sexuality.
Will Trump’s gamble on young black men pay off?
For much of the past year, the Trump campaign has played up its targeted outreach to a specific segment of the electorate: black men. with an avalanche Purpose is digital advertising A young black menAnd deploying surrogates and outside groups to reach young black voters, the campaign hoped to exploit two dynamics: Harris’ apparent weakness to black men and an overwhelming weakness of Democrats with young black Americans.
Traditional polling suggests that Harris faces a challenge to hit the same margin of support for past Democratic candidates among black voters, and especially among black men. Both social and economic factors explain it, including the former President Barack Obama’s theory is that one degree of misogyny Something is keeping black men from supporting a black woman.
But there’s also a broader Democratic vulnerability, which polls have shown young black voters may have in particular weak ties than the party The older group Black voters, and maybe more conservative than their elders. And young black male more displayed probably To support Trump this year, perhaps as a product of that weaker bond.
But it is also the least likely to vote among voters and which, As some polling suggestsUniting for Harris as they tune into the election. And with more overtly racist comments and bigoted rhetoric deployed by Trump and his supporters in the final weeks of the campaign, it’s unclear whether the investment will pay off enough to make a run in battleground states on Election Day.
Will Latino voters make the right move to those states?
Whether Latino voters have been shifting toward the Republican Party since the start of the Trump year is not really contested. Trump’s gains in 2020 stall for Republican candidates in the 2022 midterms, and polls suggest he will hold onto most support for at least a week. But since the election is decided by the Electoral College and not the popular vote, the more interesting question is whether those gains will stick around or grow in key states.
In 2020, much of the political media was captivated by Trump’s sweeping inroads in South Florida and South Texas, places that have given Democrats years of Latino support. But Trump’s Hispanic gains have also occurred across the country, primarily among immigrant communities and in both Democratic and Republican strongholds. Don’t necessarily influence Electoral College Map Results
This year, it is already likely to appear in the state strongly back Trump or Harris Their Latino population may be shifting to the right (most evident in Florida), even as Latino voters Swing state choice ArizonaNevada, and Pennsylvania, according to polling, buck that trend and swing toward Democrats (or at least keep Democratic margins intact through 2020).
That could give Trump greater national traction among Latinos, but not enough to propel him into the presidential race in swing states. That would provide further evidence of an ongoing racial realignment among the parties, but driven by Hispanic and Latino voters in California, New York and Texas. This has real implications for control of Congress, but, unless Latinos change their party affiliation and live in swing states, it won’t affect who wins the White House.
