D Today, explained The podcast takes a deep dive into the key themes of the 2024 election through the lens of seven battleground states We have heard from voters so far Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, WisconsinAnd North CarolinaAnd this week we return to Nevada, where the economy is a top concern for voters.
As Election Day winds down, the economy remains stagnant Top of mind for voters — but perhaps nowhere more so than Nevada, which has dealt with more than its share of economic headwinds over the past four years.
The Silver State has one of the nation’s highest unemployment rates at 5.6 percent, skyrocketing housing costs, and grocery Among the most expensive in the country. Las Vegas, the state’s economic engine, is still suffering from pandemic shutdowns and tourism losses, and the unemployment rate is 5.9 percent.
So Kamala Harris as Vice President and former President Donald Trump are their brokers Economic planning Voters may feel like they are speaking directly to Nevada residents. And for good reason — Nevada’s six electoral votes, which went narrowly in favor of President Joe Biden in 2020, could play a significant role in determining the outcome of this election.
Nevada will also play a role in deciding control of the US Senate, as incumbent Democratic Sen. Jackie Rosen faces Republican challenger Sam Brown. critical race.
To understand the economic concerns of Nevada voters and get an early sense of which way the election headwinds are blowing in the state, Today, explained Host Sean Rameswaram speaks with John Ralston, CEO and editor of Nevada’s only statewide outlet, the nonprofit news organization Nevada Independent.
Ralston has earned a reputation for tracking granular early voting data and accurately predicting Nevada’s presidential vote in the past three presidential elections.
Below is a portion of the conversation, edited for length and clarity. There’s more in the full podcast, so take a listen Today, explained Wherever you get your podcast, incl Apple Podcasts And Spotify.
Sean Rameswaram
You have a reputation for calling things like this in Nevada. How does it look, a week out?
John Ralston
I have a pretty good prediction record, but I don’t make it a week or two out. Do this three days before the election. We don’t really have enough data to make a prediction, but Republicans look better in the previous count than they ever have. On the other hand, we recently [became] A mostly mail-ballot state. And so there’s some sense that younger voters are going to vote later, that all those independents — and there’s been a burst of them in Nevada — are going to go the way of the Democrats. so [Democrats] Not giving up yet, but I think they are concerned.
Sean Rameswaram
Given the way the two candidates are campaigning, how important is Nevada in this 2024 presidential election?
John Ralston
We are one of the few battleground states. We don’t have as many electoral votes as Pennsylvania, but we’re really a mirror of the country demographically. Las Vegas is a demographic melting pot [with] A very large Hispanic population, substantial Asian and African American populations, and a service worker economy that is both good for Democrats and good for Trump, who likes to say, “I love the educated poor.”
Sean Rameswaram
What are the under-educated most concerned about this election season?
John Ralston
Well, I wouldn’t call them that. But what they are most concerned about is what they are most concerned about everywhere else, which is the economy. We were extraordinarily broken by covid. The Las Vegas Strip, Nevada’s economic engine, has been shut down for months. Many people lost their jobs. Unemployment was up to 30 percent. And even though it’s come down a lot, it’s now down to about 5 percent — still one of the highest unemployment rates in the country.
But its addition is housing. People are finding it difficult to buy houses, rent houses, rent apartments. And still have an evacuation hangover. The law here is in favor of the landlords. There is a process called Summary evictions that Democrats tried to changeAnd it’s affecting many low-income voters.
Sean Rameswaram
And if you look at the economic plans or policy proposals that these two candidates are pushing, it almost seems like they’re talking directly to Nevada voters, right?
John Ralston
It looks like both campaigns woke up a few weeks ago and saw numbers that showed housing to be a big problem. And so Trump basically piggybacked the Republican governor here who said they had to give up more federal land. It’s just a supply and demand problem. 87 percent Nevada is federal landSo that’s a solution. And Harris used more traditional Democratic rhetoric about helping people get into their homes, making sure people stayed in their homes. But none of them really provided much concrete information.
Sean Rameswaram
What plans are more targeted at, say, income? I know we have “no tax on tips” – both candidates are proposing it – which seems like a Nevada thing, a Vegas thing, a service industry thing.
John Ralston
Trump says that a waitress — whether she’s real or mythical, it’s always hard to tell — said [to him]”Can you do anything about this?” Whether it happened or not, I don’t know. But I think in terms of a political pander, it’s a pretty smart play by the Trump campaign. They’re putting this on suddenly. They’ve even taken it to internet memes urging people to sign their checks, “No tax on tips.”
The Harris campaign originally pooh-poohed it, but later jumped on board and said it was a great idea. And suddenly our Democratic senators and Congress are on board too. Is this cut in favor of Trump? I don’t know, but I will tell you this, that an election that could be so close – some people think it could be 5 or 10,000 votes out of about 1.3 or 4 million votes – could make every little bit of difference, and there was a problem going on. Be hard to tell.
Sean Rameswaram
If Trump really succeeds and wins Nevada, what do you think that says about his campaign, about his appeal? [this year]When did he lose there in 2016 and 2020?
John Ralston
But he didn’t lose much. He lost by two and a half points. It will say that the state has changed hands for the first time in two decades. In 2022, we elected a Republican governor. [If Trump wins the state]Republicans will say they have a chance in Nevada, that the so-called Harry Reid machine isn’t all-powerful, that it can beat a presidential race. All that will be said.
Sean Rameswaram
And if Harry wins, it indicates that the opposite will be true, it will still be Harry Reid’s kingdom, the machine that Harry built.
John Ralston
I think the narrative will be that even in adverse economic times, even in times when the demographics seem to have shifted somewhat, the machine still knows how to get its voters to the polls, whether it’s primarily in-person voting or by mail. On ballot or election day, that’s enough to keep the state in Democratic hands for every cycle since 2008.
Sean Rameswaram
Do you think there are a lot of voters in Nevada who are still trying to figure it out, who are still undecided, who we know are going to vote on the fifth, but are still waiting to hear more about these candidates? And if so, do you think they will push either side?
John Ralston
Who are the people who can be undecided in this race at this point, right? Most polls show that about 5 percent or more are undecided. Some surveys put them at 7 or 8 percent. And so I think every little bit can matter. These service workers, these blue-collar workers, who were called “Reagan Democrats” when I first started covering politics, will they go for Trump?
Sean Rameswaram
These plans, such as “no tax on tips”, more housing, freeing up federal land, are they breaking through?
John Ralston
If it’s a very close race here, which it could be, it’s very hard to pinpoint what the tipping point would have been.
