in quite a few swing StatesThe 2024 elections are virtually tied. Even the slightest factor — including the presence of a third-party candidate on the ballot — could sway the results either way.
Third-party candidates don’t tend to get much traction: Without a major party behind them, every step of the electoral process is more difficult, including building name recognition, garnering support, getting on the ballot or debate stage, and fundraising.
But third-party candidates don’t need much support to disrupt a race. Over the past two election cycles, the average number of votes that decided the outcome in seven swing states was less than 125,000 votes. For example, the election in Wisconsin went Trump’s way 22,748 votes In 2016 and by Biden 20,682 2020 – Average margin of victory less than 21,715 votes. And while no third-party candidate alone is likely to crack this threshold, the votes for all third-party candidates exceed that threshold in some states.
Kyle Condick, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said this year, third-party vote share will likely be closer to what it was in 2020 (about 2 percent). 2016 (about 6 percent). That may be in part because 2016 saw an unusually large share of Americans dissatisfied with their presidential options, and Harris appears to be entering the race to replace President Joe Biden this year. Given the majority of Democratic leaning voters A candidate they can get behind.
Still, Condick said it’s “likely, if not more, that the total third-party share will be larger than the gap between Trump and Harris in one or more states.”
This means that third-party voters, notoriously unpredictable and hard to persuade, can play a decisive role in a very close election, swinging it in the direction of Trump or Harris.
Who are the third party candidates on the ballot?
There are a few key third-party candidates to be aware of. None of them are very popular, but together, the top four are polling almost 3 percent nationally. (Remarkably, most Vote average And model Harris and Trump are within 2 percentage points of each other).
Chief among the third-party candidates who made it onto swing-state ballots this year is the Green Party’s Jill Stein, a progressive who drew Democratic-leaning voters in her previous two presidential bids.
Stein is on the ballot in every swing state except Nevada, and has been endorsed by a Muslim American group.”Leave the Haris“Michigan. Became Vice-President Struggle among Arab-American voters There are those who helped Biden’s 2020 victory in the state and those who oppose the Biden administration’s approach to the Gaza war.
According to a recent New York Times report, both Stein and Libertarian Party nominee Chase Oliver claim about 1 percent support nationally. Voting. That’s lower than Stein’s vote share in 2016, when he last ran for president.
Still, the results could be enough to cause an upset in the same states where she previously won significant numbers of voters: In 2016, she won more votes in the “blue wall” states of Michigan and Wisconsin than Trump won in those states.
Another potential wild card in those states is independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who suspended his campaign and endorsed former President Donald Trump in August.
Because of the anti-establishment views espoused by some in the GOP and his embrace of his status as a member of the Democratic Kennedy dynasty, he was once seen as a potential spoiler for both Trump and President Joe Biden. Kennedy was About 10 percent of the vote Nationally for the better part of 2024, and even more so in some swing-state polls. But his support crated Less than 5 percent in August after Harris clinched the Democratic nomination, suggesting that many Democrats see him as the only alternative to Biden and aren’t particularly invested in his candidacy.
Now, he’s more likely to be a spoiler for Trump. He recently polled about half a percentage point, about the same as independent Cornell West. The New York Times.
He did though Remove yourself from the ballot In Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada, he is still on the ballot in Wisconsin. The Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled to put him on the ballot there, but he is appeal That decision. From a practical point of view it is not clear how the court could rule in his favor; About 100,000 people have already received absentee ballots printed with his name.
A federal judge also ruled that Kennedy must Will be on the ballot in MichiganWhere the race has narrowed and Harris now leads the five-thirties by less than 1 percentage point Vote average.
Other third-party candidates include Claudia de la Cruz of the Socialism and Liberation Party, Joel Skousen of the Independent American Party, Randall Terry of the Constitution Party, and Joseph Kishore of the Socialist Equality Party. None of them have the support of the above four however managed to get out.
Together, these third-party candidates have some chance of closing the gap on both Harris and Trump in the states they need to win. Still, while third-party candidates are often seen taking votes away from the candidates of the two major parties, the outcome of the election might not be different if they weren’t on the ballot.
“Third-party voters can be idiosyncratic and not everything can be achieved through campaigning — perhaps some of them wouldn’t vote for a major-party even if they were the only option,” Kondik said.
