D Today, explained The podcast takes a deep dive into the key themes of the 2024 election through the lens of seven battleground states We have heard from voters so far Georgia, PennsylvaniaAnd ArizonaAnd this week we return to Wisconsin, where rural voters can make a difference.
With less than a month until Election Day, Wisconsin Democrats are pouring time and energy into parts of the state they regularly lose by double digits in hopes of reaching rural voters who went solidly for Donald Trump in the last two presidential elections. All signs point to that That those voters will do it again, but that hasn’t stopped the Democrats campaign To attract as many voters as possible to heavily rural districts.
According to Rob MentzerA rural community reporter for Wisconsin Public Radio, Democrats are clear that they almost certainly won’t win in rural parts of Wisconsin. As the margin narrows, however, they hope to “lose less” — and thus win statewide.
If that strategy succeeds, it will be a big deal. Although Wisconsin has long been a progressive stronghold, a wave of Republican support in the early 2000s transformed it from part of the Midwestern “blue wall” of Democrats. Battleground state Decisions are often made by razor-thin margins.
In 2020, Biden won the state by just over half a percentage point, thanks to high turnout in Madison, Milwaukee and other cities. If Harris and incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who is up for re-election, can make gains with rural voters this time, it will extend their path to victory in the state.
Today, explained Hosted by Sean Rameswaram Mentzer spoke with Mentzer about what he’s hearing from rural voters in north-central Wisconsin as Democrats make a play for their support.
Below is a portion of their conversation, edited for length and clarity. There’s more in the full podcast, so take a listen Today, explained Wherever you get your podcast, incl Apple Podcasts, Google PodcastsAnd Spotify.
Sean Rameswaram
Can we talk real quick about what Wisconsin looked like before Donald Trump? It was a progressive place, wasn’t it?
Rob Mentzer
Wisconsin has one A very long history Progressive politics. From the turn of the 20th century, it was actually one of the birthplaces of the progressive movement. Robert La Follette Was a populist governor, later US senator. He was beloved by the farmers of the state, by the countryside. And you can Draw a straight line Many New Deal laws from that progressive movement in Wisconsin and modern progressivism, certainly.
Sean Rameswaram
And what changes? Is it as simple as Donald Trump or is there more to the story?
Rob Mentzer
I think it goes a little further than that. So in 2010, there was a huge wave election for the Republicans. And that year one of the Republicans was elected Scott Walkerwho became governor of Wisconsin. Some people would think that one of the first things he did in office was to introduce a bill that essentially removed collective bargaining rights from most public unions — teachers, government workers. And there has been a huge reaction to this. Protests have been going on in the state capital for weeks. But the Republicans won that fight. And then, because 2010 was one Reorganization yearThey use the power of their trifecta Those who entrench the majority Walker survived in the legislature a Withdrawal of election In 2012. He won re-election in 2014. And that brings us to the Trump era in 2016.
Hillary Clinton is famous Didn’t go to Wisconsin During the 2016 campaign. And he didn’t win Wisconsin on election night in 2016.
Now, the reasons for this are complex. But I think that manufacturing Really a big part of it. It is one of the absolute pillars of Wisconsin’s economy. There are many rural communities where a paper mill or a window and door manufacturer, a Harley Davidson plant, is the largest employer. They provide the most jobs. And there is a real and a Long term decline That’s part of the manufacturing jobs in Wisconsin you can find all the way from the 1970s to the 2010s.
Some people blame NAFTA or other free-trade agreements entirely. These were things that President Bill Clinton signed into law, was an advocate of, and Hillary Clinton was associated with, while Trump was vocal.
Also, in 2010, we saw a lot Consolidation of dairy farmsMany off small farms. And I think those things were part of the changes in rural areas that voters responded to.
Sean Rameswaram
Will Biden bring it back in 2020? Because he’s got Obama affiliation and doesn’t have that NAFTA affiliation?
Rob Mentzer
In a word, no.
Sean Rameswaram
OK!
Rob Mentzer
The 2020 election looked a lot like the 2016 election in Wisconsin. The rural vote has come out in favor of Trump huge number. Bigger than 2016. The only thing is that the turnout was a little higher in Madison and other Democratic strongholds. Democrats gained ground in suburban Wisconsin in 2020, and that put Biden over the top in Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes, which was substantial, but less than 1 percent. But Trump’s rural base of voters, they are fully grown.
Sean Rameswaram
ok So let’s talk about where that takes us this year, in 2024, just a few weeks from now. It sounds like you’re saying you expect Wisconsin to go back to Trump from your vista, is that correct?
Rob Mentzer
Well, I certainly hope the part of the state I live in goes Trump again. No question about it, I don’t think so. It’s worth saying that Democrats poured a lot of money and resources and volunteer time into rural Wisconsin this year.
Sean Rameswaram
And what are the Democrats doing to dress up the description of Rob’s rural community in Wisconsin? What are they doing to organize Democrats and create new Democrats in these communities where you hang out?
Rob Mentzer
Democrats have opened something like 50 field offices around the state, including more than 30 counties that Trump won in 2020. They’re knocking on doors and doing direct mail and all kinds of other campaign outreach techniques, including more in-person work than was the case four years ago.
We also saw how Kamala Harris is trying to reach out directly to Republican voters. This month, he campaigned with Liz Cheney, a former member of the House Republican leadership. they did The event in Ripon, WisconsinWhere the Republican Party was born in the 19th century. And it was clearly understood as a way to reach voters who consider themselves Republican but might be open to voting for Harris.
And then there’s Harris’s choice of vice president. Tim Walz speaks of having rural roots, Growing up on a farm in Nebraska. And he just comes off as a country guy. I passed one of those huge yard signs on a highway in central Wisconsin that read “Harris 2024,” and someone spray-painted “Tim Walz for VP” underneath, I think as a way to emphasize that he’s also part of the ticket. And I hear from people in rural Wisconsin who think they’ve connected with a hunter named Tim Walz. He wears a camo cap and [he’s a] Small town football coach.
And then another reason this year is that for the first time in over a decade, Wisconsin has New voting map That actually gives Democrats a chance to take back a majority in at least one house of the state legislature. I think that definitely brought some new attention and added energy to democratic organizing at the local level.
Sean Rameswaram
So do you think it might work? Do you think Democrats can win over Wisconsin’s rural voters?
Rob Mentzer
Well, they can win back something Rural voters, maybe. Democrats I’ve talked to are targeting lower rates in these rural areas. So one of them, Jim Davis, said they don’t even remotely think they’re going to get more than 50 percent in Taylor County. And so if they can get to 35 percent in an area where maybe they’re lucky to scrape 25 percent, that could really make a difference in a state as close as Wisconsin.
