The assassination of Hamas leader and architect of the October 7 attacks, Yahya Sinwar, could be a pivotal moment in the war in Gaza and the wider conflict in the Middle East. It may even be an opportunity to end the war – but only if both sides of the war treat it as such.
According to initial Israeli media reports, Two other Hamas fighters were killed along with Sinwar The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) opened fire on a building in the southern Gaza city of Rafah on Wednesday where three people were hiding. The soldiers then ordered airstrikes against the building, collapsing it. When IDF soldiers entered what remained of the building on Thursday, they noticed that one of the slain Hamas members looked like Sinwar. The identity of the body was confirmed through DNA tests on Thursday.
Although Sinwar is described as “dead man walkingFor months, he had been reported by Israeli officials as not being the target of an IDF operation, and it was surprising that he was apparently above ground and accompanied by only a few comrades. For months, US and Israeli officials said Sinwar was likely deep underground in Hamas’ tunnel network, around which the hostages were effectively acting as human shields. Israeli authorities say they trust Sinwar was in a tunnel Six hostages were killed by their captors in late August, although it is unclear exactly when Sinwar left.
What will his death mean for Hamas? Jonathan LordDirector of the Middle East Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, said that after a year of Israeli attacks, Hamas was already severely degraded, and that Sinwar’s death alone would likely “not change the military capabilities of Hamas.” But, he added, “Politically, Sinwar’s death has created a void in the movement, at least in the near term.”
Sinwar explained
Born in the Gaza City of Khan Yunis in 1962, Sinwar has been a member of Hamas since its inception in 1987 and founded its internal security service, known as Majd. he has gained a reputation To brutally enforce loyalty to the movement by killing and torturing suspected traitors and collaborators.
Sinwar was arrested in 1988 for murder and kidnapping and was sentenced to four life terms in Israel. While in prison, he reportedly learned Hebrew and devoured Israeli media and books to learn more about his opponents. Sinwar was able to put those lessons to use after becoming one of more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners released in 2011 in exchange for captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.
Six years after his release, he became the leader of Hamas in Gaza. Among the Hamas leadership, he was considered to be among those closest to Iran and willing to make political compromises with Israel. Sinwar was the chief architect of the October 7 attack and chose its official name, Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.
After Ismail Haniyeh, the global political leader of Hamas, was killed in an Israeli bomb strike in Tehran in July, Sinwar took over that role. Over the past year, Israeli and American officials have often described Sinwar as a major obstacle to a ceasefire.
Sinwar is committed to a full Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza and is less willing to compromise than Hamas leaders based outside Palestine. In early October, the The New York Times reported American intelligence that assessed Sinwar did not believe he would survive the conflict, wanted to see Israel embroiled in a larger war in the Middle East, and was not interested in reaching a settlement. All of which, it seems, proved correct.
What’s next for Hamas – and the Gaza war
It was not immediately clear who would replace Sinwar. Many senior Hamas leaders and Sinwar’s top lieutenants have also been killed in the past few years. In terms of global leaders, the most obvious candidate, if only because he is the most prominent Hamas figure still alive, is Khaled Meshaal, a founding member of the group who was chairman of Hamas’ political bureau from 1996 until 2017, when he was succeeded. Haniyah Meshal is currently staying in Qatar. It is also possible that Hamas could choose a young face from within its Politburo – the main decision-making body.
For Israel, Sinwar’s death is a major political and strategic victory. “This is our Bin Laden moment,” Nimrod Novick, a former senior adviser to late Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres, told Vox. Novick described the assassination as a great opportunity for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “declare victory” and push for a cease-fire agreement and hostage-release deal similar to the one Israel offered in late May, and which Hamas accepted — Although with some key changes — Early July. Negotiations on that deal eventually collapsed when Netanyahu Additional conditions have been added.
“You, Bibi, the guy who was supposed to be blocking the deal, is gone,” said Novick, a fellow at the Israel Policy Forum. “Can you do something creative?”
Washington’s message was similar. “This moment gives us an opportunity to end the war in Gaza,” said Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. said In a brief statement.
For the moment, however, that doesn’t seem to be how Netanyahu sees it. “Today, evil has struck a heavy blow – the mission ahead of us is still unfinished,” the PM said said on Thursday.
For now, attention has turned to the remaining hostages, many with families, in Gaza It is feared that more may be killed In revenge for Sinwar’s death. Officially, Hamas is believed to be holding 101 of the 254 hostages kidnapped on October 7, although Israeli authorities believe half of them may have died.
Sinwar’s death comes at a time when Israel is increasingly shifting its political attention and military resources to its war with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria and to direct confrontation with Iran, despite attacks on Gaza — including A fatal one earlier this week A hospital where displaced people were sheltered – continues.
Netanyahu also said A plan has been considered Several former generals have proposed turning northern Gaza into a closed military zone, evacuating its entire civilian population and starving the rest. Defense Minister Yoav Galant denied that Israel was moving ahead with the so-called Starvation planwhich is opposed by the United States.
Monday, US issued a statement Calling on Israel to improve humanitarian conditions in Gaza – particularly by allowing more aid shipments, which Supposedly slow A trickle, or risk US arms supplies. On the other hand, the statement came on the same day that Israel received New top-of-the-line missile defense mechanism.
This is the first time the White House – and Netanyahu’s Israeli critics – expect the prime minister to “win” in Gaza. In a May White House statement, Biden assured the Israelis that “Hamas is no longer capable of carrying out the October 7 campaign” and that the pursuit of “total victory” will not bring home the hostages or “permanent security for Israel.”
Perhaps Sinwar’s assassination will change the Israeli government’s calculus. But it’s also possible that Netanyahu and his superiors see it as proof that Sinwar would likely still be alive if they had heeded Biden’s warning in May. And of course, any hope of a ceasefire would be further dimmed if the hostages were killed by Hamas in retaliation.
One thing is certain, the war in Gaza, which has killed more than 40,000 people, is back in the spotlight. The question is whether this will eventually mean an end – or at least a break – or if there will be a more or less permanent reoccupation of the territory.
