A few weeks ago, Hurricane Helen devastated several states in the southeastern United States. Over 230 people were killed That number could rise because of the storm, and as the search for the missing continues. Entire homes, streets and towns were torn apart across the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida. The rebuilding plan is bound to be a slow struggle.
Now, Florida is about to face another disaster — before even having a fair chance to recover from the last one.
On Wednesday night, Hurricane Milton, currently a Category 4 storm, will make landfall on Florida’s west coast. Although forecasters say it is likely to weaken slightly before reaching Florida, government officials said Ordering millions of people in more than a dozen counties to empty
“I can say this without any drama: If you choose to be in one of these evacuation zones, you’re going to die,” said Tampa Mayor Jane Castor.
The Tampa Bay area, in particular, is in serious trouble. The land is prone to flooding and storm surges due to the hurricane season. Most recently, Hurricane Helen occurred Record storm surges for the city
But now, the region could be right on Milton’s path. The last time a hurricane hit the area directly was 1921 – it tore down homes and killed eight people. At the time, Tampa Bay was home to 65,000 people. Today, the population is 3.1 million. The exact location of where Milton will make landfall Still unsureEven on its arrival day, it’s clear there’s more to lose this time around.
The backstory between Hurricanes Helen and Milton highlights the disaster for Florida communities Just started rebuilding and restoring From the loss of Helen. As Hurricane Milton approaches, coastal residents and their local governments are scrambling to remove piles of debris from roads, which could become dangerous projectiles if blown by the impending storm, which is currently forecast to make landfall as a Category 4. (Hurricane Katrina, for example, made landfall as a Category 3). Some cities are still getting back on their feet when Hurricane Debbie, a massive Category 1 storm that wreaked havoc in parts of Florida and flooded cities with persistent heavy rains, hit back in August.
Florida is no stranger to extreme weather, even with one weather disaster after another. But all of the above context makes this situation seem horribly different.
“You could call it unprecedented, because you can take the same meteorological setup, the same tropical magnitude hurricane in the same physical environment, but with more people and infrastructure – it’s not something we’ve seen in recent, modern times,” says Emily PowellFor Assistant State Climatologist Florida Climate Center and program managers Climate Impacts Against Florida Building Resiliency (BRACE) program.
I spoke with Powell in depth to better understand the gravity of the situation and how communities are facing this uniquely devastating moment for millions of people along Milton’s path.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Sam Delgado
I know you are in Florida, where you do your work. How are you feeling as Milton comes closer to making landfall?
Emily Powell
Milton is projected to cause more destruction, more storm surge, higher storm surge levels, potentially higher rainfall rates along Florida’s western Gulf Coast. These are places along the coast that will see really high, high level storm surges that we haven’t seen in a long time in those places.
Helen brought roughly 6 to 7 feet of storm surge to west-central Florida. And we’re projecting to see over 15 feet in some places, and the high level of storm surge. I think we’ve seen people be very reactive to this threat so far. People are evacuating. It looks like there’s been a lot of traffic jams, which means people are listening and heeding the warnings, which is good news and I hope that continues today. We have more time to prepare, and I think people are getting sandbags, securing their spots and hopefully finding safe places to ride out the storm.
Sam Delgado
Florida went through Hurricane Helen just a week and a half ago, and some communities are still recovering from the effects of Hurricane Debbie two months ago. Now, the state is preparing for the arrival of Hurricane Milton. How is the ground right now for the people of Milton’s Way?
Emily Powell
I was in Steinhatchee late last week, and so Steinhatchee got a direct hit from Helen, and that’s their third storm in 13 months for that particular part of the coast and Steinhatchee, Keaton Beach and Cedar Key, and then places further south that have a direct hit from Milton. has, People are still in a lot of reaction and recovery. In Steinhatch – and it looks very similar after Hurricane Idalia last year – if you drive down the street, you see piles and piles of debris, piles of garbage, inside people’s homes, some places, and so everything is still in the process of cleaning.
What we’re seeing now is emergency preparations to remove and clean up and dispose of all the debris, getting it off the roads where it could be a hazard as the storm approaches, except that some people were still powerless. I think Steinhatch was actually at about 85 percent power recovery. I think where power can be restored, it has been restored following Helen, but there may be instances where a particular home or building cannot receive power due to damage to that particular structure.
Unfortunately, we only need to pause and change gears to prepare for this next landfalling hurricane and then further recovery and cleanup.
Sam Delgado
How did Milton evolve so quickly after Helen?
Emily Powell
This season, in addition to the last Atlantic hurricane season, waters in the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, as well as the main development areas of the tropical Atlantic Ocean basin have been incredibly warm, much warmer than normal. And in some places, record warmth, and so that’s one factor that contributed to the prediction of a really aggressive hurricane season was record warm water temperatures.
So here in the Gulf, at this point in the hurricane season, we’re seeing more development in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico as opposed to out in the tropical Atlantic basin. So it is not very unusual to see a lot of activity in this part of the basin at this time of year. Because the water has warmed so much, storms like Milton have been able to spin really, really fast. When we adjust for other conditions, such as low vertical wind shear developments, we see Milton-like explosive intensity. This has just happened in an environment in the western Gulf of Mexico that has been very conducive to this very rapid intensification.
These back-to-back storms are not necessarily unusual. As we’ve seen in many other seasons, like 2020, we’ve seen places hit repeatedly, it also works with atmospheric patterns that help drive storms.
Sam Delgado
What do these two storms, underscored and happening back-to-back, say about the kind of disaster we’re going to see in a world affected by climate change?
Emily Powell
Unfortunately, we’ve seen it happen before. This is not unprecedented, but it speaks to the fact that no one is truly immune or safe from this storm.
We’ve seen in a lot of research that there’s a trend toward more rapid intensification with tropical cyclones, and so when we get storms like tropical storms or hurricanes, we see an increase in their ability to rapidly intensify, and so that’s definitely something that we’ll see going forward. will continue Unfortunately people need to be prepared for these larger, more destructive hurricanes.
Sam Delgado
How are area institutions, such as local agencies and state agencies, preparing and helping communities along Milton’s path?
Emily Powell
I think emergency response and preparedness is getting better and more efficient at warning people ahead of time, getting those evacuation orders in advance to give people time to heed the warning and evacuate. So for example, we saw the roads pile up and traffic starting yesterday, two days before landfall, which is really great that people can get out sooner and get to safety and not have to worry about leaving at the last minute, you know, when the roads are gridlocked. Going to We’re really good about asking neighboring communities for help before a hurricane makes landfall, so they can respond immediately once the situation is safe.
One thing we looked at, I think through a program that focuses more on climate and health is special needs shelters and how that works during evacuations. One of the things we’ve found is that not all special needs registries are up to date, so it’s not known who all needs special accommodations when moving and where they’re located. Local health departments can prepare more by understanding where their most vulnerable populations are, making sure their special needs registries are up-to-date and prepared so that when such a storm hits, they know where those people are and can send them. . Help move people to evacuation shelters where they are needed. So all of these things must happen before a hurricane approaches land and makes landfall. This is a challenge and a need that has been identified, and so we are starting to address it
Sam Delgado
There are communities in Florida that are hit by extreme weather events more than once in a year. From your perspective, is there a breaking point for how often a population can deal with these extreme weather disasters, and what might that breaking point look like?
Emily Powell
This is a good question for each individual as well as each community to ponder for themselves At some point, you have to pick your own personal risk tolerance and understand what you’re willing to deal with and what you’re not. Some people are more vulnerable than others. Some are more risk tolerant. So I think for us as a community, and for us individually, it’s something that each of us has to ask ourselves and then take steps to increase our preparedness and make sure we’re as prepared as we can be for this type of storm.
Sam Delgado
Do you have any tips or resources for Florida residents in the path of Hurricane Milton to best protect themselves?
Emily Powell
Going to be the best, most trusted resource National Hurricane Center. Their website has the latest updates on storm tracks, storm intensity, impacts, hazard maps that they produce through the National Weather Service, your local National Weather Service office. They are going to be the best source of information on the storm itself. And then, of course, your local weather forecast office and your local emergency management office for evacuation.
