For much of last year, the war in Gaza dominated global headlines, while the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah on the country’s northern border was just below the surface, threatening to boil over.
Today, on the anniversary of the October 7 attacks, the situation is roughly reversed: the Israeli government and the international community are focusing on the violence in Lebanon and tensions with Iran, while Gaza has fallen off the front pages.
The war in Gaza is not over. About 100 people were killed by the Israelis last week Airstrikes and ground operations in Gaza. But Israel Defense Forces (IDF) troop levels in Gaza are shrinking Like 90 percent From the high ground of operations, as Israel shifted resources to the fight in the north.
Yet the military operation that Israel calls the “Iron Sword” has waned, with no signs of ending anytime soon. Instead, the conflict appears to be transforming into the “forever war” that both Israel and the United States have become so familiar with in recent decades.
Instead of the “day after” that has been talked about since the invasion began almost a year ago, Gaza is stuck in a perpetual current of conflict, chaos and civilian deaths. There are no signs that will change – and that is extremely dire news for the civilian population of Gaza.
“With the world’s attention focused on Lebanon, I think the concern for the Palestinians is that they are now left to their own devices,” said Hold MustafaSenior Palestinian analyst of the International Crisis Group.
A ceasefire in Gaza remains elusive. Several rounds of US-led talks aimed at ending the fighting with Netanyahu and returning the hostages have failed Repeatedly emphasizing On maintaining an Israeli military presence in Gaza after the war. Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s popularity after months of public anger over the failure of his government on October 7 Rebounded After the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrullah. This means there is far less domestic pressure to end a war that has sparked domestic protests, international condemnation of Israel and damaged its economy.
Ending the conflict isn’t the only thing working against. With the US election looming, President Joe Biden has effectively become a lame duck with diminishing leverage (which he is least willing to use) over America’s Israeli ally. After months of criticism of Netanyahu’s handling of the war in Gaza, US officials have — off the record, at least — accepted a Significantly more positive tone About Hezbollah and its activities targeting Iran.
As for Hamas, though, it can still launch periodic attacks — incl One that killed four IDF soldiers In September – and may still have as many as 101 Israeli hostages, it lost More than half are military leaders Since the start of the war, according to Israeli estimates.
Even in his weakened state, he is unlikely to agree to a deal that leaves Israeli troops in Gaza. Point is, after witnessing Nasrallah’s fate, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is probably less inclined to agree to any kind of deal with an opponent almost certain to kill him at the first opportunity, whoever he is. (That’s assuming he’s still alive – growing up there Speculation has swirled in recent weeks about Sinwar’s whereabouts.)
Add it all up and the situation in Gaza becomes something harder to categorize but no less dire – not a formal occupation or annexation, but one in which the Israeli military effectively controls Gaza without governing it, reserving the right to strike when it wants to. . Little to support the reconstruction of the region. It’s one where the prospect of a post-war Gaza seems more remote than ever.
as Vein EfronAn analyst at the Israel Policy Forum and an outside adviser to the Israeli government, said all these developments are leading some Israelis to ponder the question: “What if this war never ends?”
Different occupations
The Israeli military occupied Gaza from 1967, following the Six-Day War, until 2005, when Prime Minister Ariel Sharon ordered the withdrawal of security forces, accompanied by the forced removal of some 8,500 Israeli settlers. Although the move was widely supported at the time — the profession was seen by many as a costly drain — the withdrawal Many Israelis saw this as a mistakeEspecially after Hamas took over Gaza in 2007.
What is happening now in Gaza is different. Although some of the dominant settler movements in Israel are ultranationalists Finance Minister Bezalel SmotrichCalls for settlement reconstruction in Gaza are not widely supported in Israel and the government does not appear to be actively considering it. And when there is something like General David Petraeus Calls for Israel to pursue Iraq-style The “clear, capture, build” counterinsurgency approach, which includes defeating militants while supporting the civilian population, digging wells and building schools in Gaza, does not appear to be on the IDF’s agenda.
“Right now, Israel’s plan is to move toward a kind of counter-terrorism in Gaza,” said a RAND Corp. military analyst. Raphael Cohen. “It’s not going to be withdrawn, but it’s also not going to be a full-on occupation.”
It could control the Philadelphia Corridor along the border with Egypt and the so-called Netzerim Corridor, which divides Gaza’s northern and southern borders, and could engage in periodic operations in the center to target the remnants of Hamas, which would likely remain a rebel force. indefinite future.
“The real concern is that Gaza is stuck in a sort of mediocrity,” Cohen said, meaning low-intensity fighting continues indefinitely, but there is no chance of rebuilding Gaza or establishing a stable regime.
Not all have such a light footprint: Retired IDF General Giora Eiland has been on a media blitz for publicity in recent weeks. This is called the “Generals’ Plan”. for gaza This would include evacuating the entire civilian population of northern Gaza (about 250,000 people) in one week, after which it would be declared a “closed military zone” with no supplies allowed; Basically, anyone who wants to starve Hamas fighters. Netanyahu is It is said to be considering The plan, however, is almost certain to be widely condemned as a war crime.
Israel has begun destroying Hamas’ military capabilities The main objective of its operation. Hamas will likely continue to operate as an underground insurgency for some time, a recipe for a long war.
As for another key goal, the return of hostages held by Hamas, Efron noted that Netanyahu “stated in every speech that he would do everything possible to bring the hostages back home.” But that is becoming increasingly unlikely without a negotiated ceasefire. “I think we’re all concerned that there’s no hostage deal on the table right now,” Efron said.
Netanyahu is in any situation MLAs are informed He believes that the other half of the hostages are already dead.
Who will actually rule Gaza?
Regardless of its military plans, Israel appears to have no intention of providing security or social services for the civilian population of Gaza that its offensive has so completely devastated.
The first weeks of the war saw a flurry of articles and policy papers proposing ideas for the Strip’s post-war regime. The United States and Western governments rallied around a few.
The United States pushed an involved idea “Reformed and Revitalized” Palestinian Authority (PA) — the organization that currently rules the West Bank — taking control of Gaza. Netanyahu Refused to consider Such a plan, they say, would turn Gaza from “Hamastan” to “Fatahstan” (Fatah is the party that dominates the PA). In any case, How unpopular to give Given the areas the PA already controls in the West Bank, it is not clear how much legitimacy it would have with the Gaza population if the group were placed at the point of Israeli guns.
The Biden administration has also pressed Arab states to take the lead in Gaza’s post-war reconstruction, but those countries have commit out For such projects without a clear path towards a Palestinian state.
In any event, Efron said “this was never a plan that Israel subscribed to.” Netanyahu vaguely called for “Civil governmentBut Efron said the Netanyahu government’s approach hinged on finding “unicorn Palestinians” worthy of governing the region but not tied to a real constituency with Hamas or Fatah or any other Palestinian faction. opposed to the plan.
“There is no turn-key government that will come in and guarantee [Israel’s] security,” said Aaron David MillerMiddle East peace negotiator for several US administrations with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
For the moment, even with its senior leadership destroyed and its physical infrastructure destroyed, the Hamas-controlled government is still able to provide at least some security and social services in parts of Gaza. But its power is limited, and Israel is unlikely to improve as the group is bent on destruction.
Going forward, Miller says, “you’re going to end up with gangs and criminal gangs” filling the power vacuum. “Hamas and the Israelis will also obviously mix, and of course NGOs will try to find ways to provide humanitarian aid in the raindrops.”
That help is still very much needed. UN officials have described the humanitarian crisis in Gaza as the worst in modern history, with food and health conditions “complete collapse” Faced with over a million people Severe malnutrition. United Nations estimates About two-thirds of Gaza is buildings Damaged or destroyed. Some estimates have determined the cost of rebuilding Gaza More than 80 billion dollarswhich More than four times Combined GDP of Gaza and the West Bank before the war.
The Crisis Group’s Mustafa sees the current trajectory of the conflict as turning Gaza into a “devastated tent city” and believes that “the international community is not going to do much to pressure Israel to pursue an alternative approach.” days later.”
What day will it be later?
When he visited the country in the days following the October 7 attacks, President Biden expressed sympathy for the Israeli people and supported their right to respond with military force. But he also gave them advice Avoid mistakes The United States built up after the 9/11 attacks, when the desire to eliminate security threats led to two decades of costly wars, mission creep and human rights abuses that damaged the country’s international standing.
Indeed, Israel needs no such warning – it knows a thing or two about watersheds. Israel occupied parts of southern Lebanon for much of the 1980s and 1990s. It was a mission that began as an effort to wipe out Palestinian militants in the country and then expanded to maintain a “security zone” alongside local Christian militias to prevent attacks in northern Israel.
By 2000, when Brigadier General Benny Gantz—later an Israeli opposition leader and then member of the Netanyahu government—became the last Israeli soldier to withdraw from the country, the conflict became known as “”Israel’s Vietnam“Hundreds of IDF soldiers and thousands of Lebanese civilians were killed.
The future “occupation” of Gaza may look more like Lebanon in this era than the current occupation and settlement of the West Bank or the situation in Gaza before 2005.
Time and time again, governments victimized by terrorist attacks have responded with open-ended military operations aimed at eliminating the threat entirely, only to learn too late that the costs are greater than they imagined—for themselves and for the populations they control. It may be years before the cost is fully recovered.
