On September 26, 1983, the planet came terrifyingly close to a nuclear holocaust.
The Soviet Union’s missile attack early warning system displayed the word “launch” in large red letters; A computer screen told Soviet Lt. Col. Stanislav Petrov, the officer in charge, that it could say “with high reliability” that an American intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) had been launched and headed toward the Soviet Union. First, it was just one missile, but then another, and another, until the system reported that one A total of five Minuteman ICBMs was launched.
“Petrov had to make a decision: Should he report an incoming American strike?” As my then-colleague Max Fischer explained. “If he does, Soviet nuclear doctrine calls for an all-out nuclear retaliation; There will be no time to double-check the warning system, much less negotiate with the US.”
It will make a certain amount of money to be reported. The Reagan administration took a much tougher stance against the Soviets than the Carter, Ford, or Nixon administrations. President Reagan announced a few months ago Strategic Defense Initiative (ironically dubbed “Star Wars,” a plan to shoot down ballistic missiles before they reach the United States), and his administration was in the process of Deploying Pershing II nuclear-armed missiles to West Germany and Great Britainwhich was capable of hitting the Soviet Union. Petrov had reason to think that Reagan’s brinkmanship had escalated into an actual nuclear exchange.
But Petrov did not announce the impending strike. He and others on his staff concluded that what they were seeing was a false alarm. And it was; System error Sun reflection from clouds for a missile. Petrov prevented nuclear war between the Soviets, who were 35,804 nuclear warheads in 1983And the US, which was 23,305.
By a 1979 report Congressional Office of Technology Assessment It is estimated that a full-scale Soviet attack on the United States would kill 35 to 77 percent of the U.S. population—or 82 million to 180 million people in 1983. An inevitable US counterattack would kill 20 to 40 percent of the Soviet population, or between 54 million and 108 million people. The combined death toll there (between 136 million and 288 million) dwarfs the death toll of any war, genocide or other violent disaster in human history. Proportionate to world population, it will be rivaled only by A Lushan Rebellion in China in the 8th century and the Mongol conquest in the 13th century.
And perhaps millions more would have died if the conflict had disrupted global temperatures and severely disrupted agriculture. To prevent nuclear war, international doctors put the potential death toll from starvation at approx 2 billion.
Petrov, almost single-handedly, prevented those deaths.
Preventing the deaths of hundreds of millions, if not billions, was a costly decision for Petrov. If he was wrong, and he somehow survived the American nuclear attack, he would probably have been executed for treason. Although he was right, he was, accordingly David Hoffman of The Washington Post“Relentlessly interrogated afterwards [and] His decision was not rewarded.”
After the Cold War, Petrov would receive a number of compliments To save the world. he was Honored by the United Nationsreceived Dresden Peace Prizeand was profiled in the documentary The Man Who Saved the World. “I was in the right place at the right time,” he said filmmakers. He died in May 2017 77 years old. Two books about the Petrov incident and other nuclear close calls in 1983 (related to NATO exercise Able Archer) have been published in recent years: Taylor Downings 1983 and by Mark Ambinder The Brink.
Petrov is not the only person who has prevented nuclear war
Petrov was not the only Russian official who saved the world. On October 27, 1962, Soviet Navy officer Vasily Arkhipov was aboard a nuclear submarine near Cuba when the U.S. Navy The depth charge has started to decrease (a type of explosive targeting submarine) on it. Two senior officers on the submarine thought that a nuclear war might already have started and wanted to launch a nuclear torpedo at a US ship. But three senior officers had to agree to launch the missile, and Arkhipov dissented, preventing a nuclear exchange and potentially the end of the world.
Even as recently as January 25, 1995, Russian early warning radar suggested an American first strike was coming. President Boris Yeltsin was warned and given a suitcase with instructions to launch a nuclear attack on the United States. Russia’s nuclear forces were alerted to increase war readiness. Yeltsin ultimately refused to launch a counterstrike – which is good, because it was another false alarm. It appears that Russian early warning systems have picked up a Norwegian-US joint research rocket, which scientists are studying the Northern Lights.
Petrov’s story makes even more sense at a moment when global nuclear tensions remain uncomfortably high. 25 September China Tested an intercontinental ballistic missile For the first time in decades. There is Vladimir Putin Russia’s nuclear threat against Ukraine escalatedNoting that even non-nuclear states, if they are supported by a nuclear state, can be subject to strikes. Also an important issue of the US-Russia nuclear deal Expires in less than two yearsand approved by the Senate Armed Services Committee Increasing US missile capabilities And Returning nuclear weapons to B-52 bombers Once it does. Meanwhile, China is significantly demanding Increase its own reserves Warhead
The mere threat of these weapons hanging over us creates the psychological uncertainty that underlies nuclear brinkmanship, as Petrov himself demonstrated. By the book, he should have at least alerted his military superiors to the apparent US nuclear attack, even if the number of missiles reported by the computer gave him reason to suspect a possible error. But while Petrov clearly showed admirable bravery — and everyone alive today should be grateful that he did — his decision also An unknown question is underlined: When the moment seems to come, will a national leader or his subordinates actually push the button?
The fate of billions of people may depend on the answer.
Update, September 26, 2024, 11:55 am ET: This story, originally published on September 26, 2018, has been updated several times to reflect recent trends in nuclear proliferation and diplomacy.
