More than that 450 people were killed and 1,500 were injured Israeli airstrikes targeted southern and eastern Lebanon as well as the country’s capital Beirut on Monday. The airstrikes mark a significant and threatening escalation of hostilities following an apparent Israeli attack using explosive pagers (and other electronic devices) to kill members of Lebanon-based Shiite militant and political group Hezbollah.
Israel and Hezbollah have regularly traded rocket fire along Lebanon’s southern border with Israel for years. However, since Israel launched a war in Gaza in retaliation for a Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, Hezbollah – Hamas’s ally – has stepped up rocket launches, hitting targets deep inside Israel. Israel Also increased his attackAnd consequently, more than that 110,000 Lebanese And About 60,000 are Israelis Internally displaced.
Last week, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant announced that Israel was entering a “new phase” in its ongoing war against Gaza and Hamas, which would focus more on its conflict with Hezbollah. “The center of gravity is moving north. We are diverting forces, resources and energy to the north,” Gallant told members of the Israeli Air Force on September 18, referring to Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.
Concerns that the conflict in Gaza would lead to an all-out war between Israel, Hezbollah and their allies existed almost throughout the year-long conflict. But the latest rounds of Israeli strikes are a provocative escalation that could threaten the fragile balance of more measured tit-for-tat missile strikes that have become fairly routine for Israel and Hezbollah.
Still, the unknowns are many: whether Hezbollah can respond in an increased fashion; whether Israel is prepared to launch a ground invasion of Lebanon, as it has done before, with disastrous effect; And whether the United States will constrain Israel and force them to retreat.
The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is briefly explained
Hezbollah is at loggerheads with Israel For decades. The group is a militia and a political party that holds seats in Lebanon’s parliament and provides services to the country’s impoverished Shia community. Formed in the wake of Israel’s disastrous invasion of Lebanon in 1982, Hezbollah has fought against Israel multiple times, most recently in 2000 and 2006.
The ensuing battle was particularly devastating, Killing over 1,000 peopleand leading to an approximation $2.8 billion in losses across Lebanon. The country never fully recovered from that war; fall of government, COVID-19And the 2020 Beirut port explosion pushed the country further into crisis. The country cannot afford a full-scale war, and those in Lebanon not aligned with Hezbollah will want to avoid a 2006-like conflict.
Whether that is possible remains to be seen. Israel has carried out several attacks on Hezbollah, including killing senior Hezbollah leader Fouad Shukhar. In July. According to Lebanon, a coordinated attack believed to have been carried out by Israel using pagers and walkie-talkies to destroy Hezbollah’s communications system injured more than 3,000 people and killed at least 32, including children and the elderly. Health Minister Dr. Firas Abiad. (Israel has not claimed responsibility for the killings or attacks as of last week; Hezbollah blamed Israel for the attack.)
Israel began bombing targets in southern Lebanon on Friday, including the suburbs and interior of Beirut, and a Hezbollah commander He was killed while meeting other Hezbollah fighters who had been part of the organization since its inception. Monday, September 23, happened rhas been eportedly Israel’s Deadliest Attack in Lebanon Since the 2006 war.
These persistent attacks have the obvious potential to spiral out of control; Israel has already “shown a willingness to go beyond the work” of the Biden administration.red lineIn their war on Gaza, Gaza attacked the city of Rafah.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah must walk a fine line if it chooses to retaliate — which is not a given despite its leader. Hasan Nasrallah’s promise That Israel “will suffer righteous vengeance and a bitter reckoning.” Hezbollah reportedly fired 8,000 rockets into Israeli territory From 7 Octobersomething targeting Israeli arms manufacturer Rafael and Ramat David air bases, both near the city of Haifa.
Since the start of the war in Gaza, Hezbollah has emphasized its solidarity with Hamas and promised to continue Will continue to attack Israel until there is a ceasefire. Both Hezbollah and Hamas benefit from Iran’s financial and strategic support, but Hezbollah is much more closely aligned with Iran’s foreign policy objectives than Hamas.
This has raised concerns about Iran being embroiled in a regional war if Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah escalates. Even if Iran were not involved in the conflict, a Hezbollah-Israel war could be incredibly bloody: Hezbollah is bigger and better armed than Hamas; If Israel were to launch a ground invasion in southern Lebanon, there is a greater chance that it would face even fiercer resistance than in Gaza.
Still, there is reason to believe that while Hezbollah may choose to de-escalate the conflict, any war would almost certainly be horrendously destructive for Lebanon, a country already struggling with a dysfunctional government and economic disaster.
“Hezbollah has a number of concerns,” when it comes to deciding its next steps, John Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Vox. “An Iranian is maintaining support, and [staying] Consistent with Iran’s assessment and regional strategy. And the other is that 85 percent of Lebanon is now below the poverty line. The country is in economic disarray, and if Hezbollah were to invite a devastating Israeli attack on Lebanon, some Lebanese would consider it reckless and harmful.”
A diplomatic solution, perhaps one in which Hezbollah agrees to withdraw positions near Lebanon’s southern border, is certainly possible. This would allow the Israelis to return to their homes in the north. Whatever the outcome, Israel will likely not be able to eliminate Hezbollah, just as it failed to eliminate Hamas. And continued aggression may lead to more extreme consequences in the future.
