Every day the sun sends rays 173,000 terawatts of energy on Earth10,000 times the amount used by humanity. That being said, the potential for solar energy is immense, and we are nowhere near the limit.
This is why solar energy is such an attractive prospect, especially as an alternative to fossil fuels that cause climate change. And over the past decade, solar energy technology has improved greatly in performance and performance Costs are down.
As a result, photovoltaic panels have cropped up like dandelions on fields and rooftops at a staggering pace. Yet even those most plugged-in to the energy industry and most optimistic about solar power continue to underestimate it. Actually, it is one Long running joke among energy nerds Forecasters continue to predict that the solar system will close as it rockets toward the Sun.
“The sun continues to surprise us,” he said Gregory Nowho wrote How solar energy has become cheaperin an email. “At this point it seems like it shouldn’t be done. It has grown by about 30 percent every year for 30 years. And costs keep falling so new users – and new uses – keep emerging.”
In the past year, solar power has experienced Brobdingnagian growth, even by solar standards. According to a New report from EmberAn energy think tank, the world is on track to install 29 percent more solar power capacity this year — a total of 593 gigawatts — than last year, which was already a record year.. This is more than one-fourth of the electricity generated Every operating coal plant in the world combined. In 2020, the entire world installed cable 760 GW of solar total. Yes, this deserved all diagonal I’m using.
It’s not surprising that solar installations continue to grow as technology improves and prices drop, but the sustained rise is still stunning.
“When you look at the absolute numbers that we’re on track for this year and what we installed last year, it’s absolutely mind-blowing,” said Euan GrahamLead author of the report and a power data analyst at Ember.
A number of factors have aligned to push solar power installations so high in recent years, such as better hardware, economies of scale and a new, ripe, energy-hungry market. Right now, solar still supplies around 5.5 percent of the world’s electricitySo there is huge room to expand. But solar energy still poses some technical challenges for power grids, and the world’s voracious appetite for electrons means countries are looking for energy wherever they can get it.
So if you’re concerned about climate change, winning solar isn’t enough; Greenhouse gases must be lost.
Why is everything so sunny for solar?
Solar energy has a lot going for it, especially photovoltaic panels. They’re modular and they scale up and down easily — there’s not much difference between a dozen panels on suburban rooftops and a dozen in a megawatt-scale power plant spanning acres. Semiconductor fabrication is mass produced in factories using well-established processes. This means small improvements in cost and performance on individual panels add up to massive benefits overall.
And for solar, the gains have been few and far between: solar power is expensive An 89 percent drop since 2010 While there are silicon solar panels Increase efficiency Over the past 40 years, from 15 percent to 26 percent.
Solr’s scalability means curious developers can try it out with a low upfront investment before ramping up. Most solar installations use off-the-shelf components, so when a homeowner or utility decides to go solar, they can start generating power quickly. “That development time is absolutely minimal compared to something like building a nuclear power plant, but even a wind farm, which can take five to seven years or more from initial permitting to first power output,” Graham said.
Even if you don’t care about climate change, solar energy has become the cheapest, fastest way to satisfy your hunger for electrons. Texas, the nation’s largest oil and gas producer, is also a national leader in adding solar power to its grid. Surpassed California.
But what happens when the sun goes down?
Solar has some disadvantages. The sun sinks below the horizon every day, and the output of solar energy varies with the weather and the seasons – when it’s cloudy and when the days are short. Banking electricity when it can be used in abundance when it is scarce will solve this problem, and well, there is good news on that front as well.
Energy storage technologies like batteries are getting better and cheaper. Batteries have a price 97 percent have tanked since 1991. Because of improved technology, falling costs, and more markets for energy storage, the United States is on track Doubles its grid energy storage capacity compared to last year. Over 10 GW of solar and storage Nationwide came online in 2023 and that was it May double this year. “Energy storage is at an earlier stage [than solar] But we’ll likely see rapid expansion in that segment, especially in areas where solar and wind penetration is already high, like California and Texas. Steve Piperdirector of energy research at S&P Global Commodity Insights, in an email.
Combined solar-plus-storage energy projects are already in place Cheaper than new fossil fuel power plants In many parts of the world, and Costs are set to drop further.
Knowing all this, energy experts continue to underestimate the potential of solar energy. “Forecasters recognize that we are in a period of rapid expansion and adoption of solar PV,” Piper said. “Over a period like this, being even slightly off about the rate of expansion would still result in a large forecast error.”
The details of the spread of solar energy are even more surprising
Not every country is launching solar-powered rockets toward the sun yet. Individual countries have seen peaks and troughs in solar installations based on how well their economies are doing and how strong their policy incentives such as feed-in tariffs, net metering and tax credits are.
In the past few years, the global story has really been about China. Add up every solar panel installed in the US in history and you get how many China installed last year alone, About 60 percent of all new solar Installed in the world. The sheer scale of this deployment shattered many forecasters’ models.
“No research outlet has necessarily predicted the pace at which China is going to increase its solar capacity over the last year or so,” said Michelle DavisWood is head of global solar at Mackenzie, an energy market analysis firm. “Everyone is correcting them upwards to correct the data that is coming out of China.”
Photovoltaics is also a key part of China’s export strategy, and last year, China made the cut Wholesale panels are half price. This has led to the rise of exports and knock-on solar power to other countries. Pakistan is the fifth most populous country in the world. 13 GW of Chinese solar imported Modules in the first half of this year alone. Which is about one-third of Pakistan Total installed electricity from the date
Davis cautioned that importing solar panels doesn’t mean they will all be installed, but it’s certainly a sign that solar is growing and the impact could be greater there than in larger or wealthier countries. While solar power additions in developing countries may be small in absolute numbers, they are a proportionally large part of the grid.
“Developing parts of the world are growing at a faster rate on a smaller base,” Davis said. “The big kahuna of the solar system are China, Europe and the United States. Although these markets are maturing and they are not growing as fast.”
There are some clouds in the sky
It can’t go on forever, right? Well, again, solar is still in the single digits in global electricity supply and is often the cheapest, fastest and easiest way to generate electricity. That momentum isn’t going to dissipate anytime soon. In the US, the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cuts mean it will likely be flat Getting a loan to finance solar power is cheapIt provides another boost.
Some challenges have also arisen. If you want to add more solar to the US power grid now, you’ll need to pick up a number and stand in line. There are hardware limits to how much uninterruptible power you can add to an aging power network, and the upgrades needed to accommodate it cost money and time. The delay is getting longer: In 2015, a typical power project waited nearly three years in an interconnection queue. In 2023, that wait time was nearly five years. Obtaining permits for larger scale solar installations is also a tedious process. Many countries face similar obstacles.
In addition, the US is bolstering its domestic clean energy sector with trade barriers including tariffs on Chinese solar panels. This may give US producers an advantage but it increases overall costs and Supply chain imposes constraints. There is also the United States 40 million dollar investment bring more Solar energy supply chain within its boundaries.
And solar energy didn’t just fall from a coconut tree; It exists in the context of a global economy that still exists 80 percent is powered by coal, oil and natural gas. overall Global energy consumption is increasingAnd not everyone is discerning about where they get their heat and electricity. As a result, the demand for fossil fuels is also increasing, though it may be peak before the end of the decade. To meet the international climate change target of limiting warming to less than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit this century, greenhouse gas emissions must fall at an even faster clip and be effectively zero by 2050.
Analysts expect solar power to help bend that curve. According to Wood Mackenzie, total global solar capacity is running out quadrupled in the next decade. It’s not certain whether the world will reach its climate goals, but as the sun rises, solar will continue to spread.
