Over the past two days, the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah has been the target of an attack so sophisticated and daring it’s brutal, turning their own pocket-sized devices into deadly weapons.
On Tuesday, hundreds of pagers distributed by Hezbollah to its members and allies in Lebanon and Syria exploded, killing at least 12 people, including two children, and injuring nearly 3,000. Then, in a follow-up attack on Wednesday, thousands of two-way radios used by the group exploded, killing nine people. About 300 people and injuredSome of whom had attended the funerals of those killed in the previous attack. There have also been reports of solar power systems exploding Different areas of LebanonBut few details about this incident have been reported.
Hezbollah quickly blamed Israel for the attack. Although the Israeli government has yet to comment — it rarely comments on covert operations abroad — experts and media reports generally assume it is responsible. It is difficult to think of another regional actor with the ability and motivation to conduct such an unprecedented operation.
The attack stunned former intelligence operatives with both its scale and sophistication. “It’s a hell of a contradiction,” Mark Polymeropoulos, a former CIA terrorism expert who is now with the Atlantic Council, told Vox. “This is probably the most impressive kinetic intelligence operation I’ve ever seen.”
Beyond demonstrating the prowess of Israel’s foreign intelligence agency Mossad, what is less clear is what it tells us about Israel’s overall strategic goals, not to mention how Hezbollah will respond or affect the outcome of this conflict or future conflicts. Here are some of the biggest outstanding questions and what we know about the answers.
How do they do it?
The emerging consensus from experts and media reports is that a small amount of explosive material was placed inside the pager. something Report proposed The explosives were detonated by malware that raised the temperature of the batteries in the pagers, but US officials said The New York Times had those devices Also fitted with switches that detonate the explosives remotely. According to the Times, the pagers received simultaneous messages on Tuesday that appeared to be from senior Hezbollah leadership, but instead the devices beeped for a few seconds and then exploded.
The pagers were a shipment of 3,000 that Hezbollah says it ordered from Gold Apollo, a Taiwanese company. But Gold Apollo says they actually did BAC Consulting, a company Based in Hungary, and the Taiwanese firm only licensed its designs and trademarks. BAC has yet to be contacted by reporters, and former intelligence officials who spoke to Vox said it’s doubtful the company even makes pagers.
Hezbollah said Changed from using cellphones to old fashioned pagers months ago to avoid Israeli surveillance. Communication is usually a point of weakness for militant groups. Earlier this week, the The Wall Street Journal reported That Hamas’ top leader, Yahya Sinwar, has abandoned electronics entirely and now relies on human couriers and a system of coded handwritten messages to communicate.
The attack comes weeks after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The bomb that was planted by Israeli agents A few months ago in a guesthouse in the capital of Iran. It comes several days after a rare Israeli ground force operation in Syria that caused a massacre Alleged underground Iranian missile factory.
“What we’ve seen in the last two months shows that Israel and its intelligence apparatus have completely penetrated the most sensitive part of the axis of resistance,” said Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. Iran’s network of proxy militias throughout the Middle East.
It was just over a year ago when Israel’s intelligence services suffered a major blow to their reputation for failing to predict the October 7 attack despite abundant signs that Hamas was preparing for a major operation. It is worth noting that the operations in Lebanon and Iran were likely carried out by the Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, the responsibility of Israel-occupied Gaza’s Shin Bet, the internal security service. Shin Bet official responsible for southern Israel and Gaza Resigned for that failureas is Two senior military intelligence officers.
Polimeropoulos said that October 7 damaged the reputation of Israel’s indomitable spy service, “They have now restored the idea of resistance based on fear, the idea that Israel has eyes everywhere.”
Why did they do it?
Emily Harding, a former CIA analyst and director of the Intelligence, National Security and Technology Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that before October 7, Israel had shifted many of its intelligence resources away from Hamas and toward Iran and the region. Proxy groups like Hezbollah. Over the past year, attention has certainly shifted to Gaza, he said, “but at the same time, they have clearly decided that they will not tolerate an imminent threat to their northern border with Lebanon”.
Even as the war in Gaza rages, Israel and Hezbollah are exchanging fire along the Israel-Lebanon border, displacing tens of thousands of civilians on both sides. When Israel allegedly backtracked on the plan Start a big preemptive strike Early in the war against Hezbollah, senior Israeli officials, esp Defense Minister Yoav GallantIsrael has repeatedly said a military strike would be necessary to counter the threat on Israel’s northern border.
Earlier this week, Israel’s security cabinet added security resettlement to the north as one of its priorities Primary Battle Aims. Without specifically mentioning the pager and walkie-talkie attacks, Gallant said Wednesday that a “New Phase” A war broke out with Hezbollah.
The question now is whether these attacks were launched in preparation for a major military move, or — as contradictory as this may seem — as a way to defuse tensions by at least briefly putting Hezbollah on its heels. . For the moment, this second possibility seems more likely. Despite Gallant’s announcement, Israel does not appear to be taking advantage of the chaos in Lebanon to launch a military invasion.
It is also possible that the timing of the attack was not deliberate at all. Middle East-focused news site Al-Monitor reported this On Tuesday that Israel wanted to wait longer to detonate the devices but was “forced” to move more quickly after reports that some members of Hezbollah began to feel that something was wrong with their pagers.
How will Hezbollah respond?
Hezbollah is there Vows revengeSaid Israel would be “justly punished” for its aggression. Militia leader Hassan Nasrallah said he would give a speech on Thursday to address the “latest progress”.
But Hezbollah’s ability to strike back may be limited by the chaos it currently finds itself in. “They almost certainly lack the communications or infrastructure to be able to coordinate not only an initial round of retaliation, but what comes next. Next,” Lister said.
Harding predicted that Hezbollah’s next move “could be a big internal mole hunt to try to find out where their weaknesses are.” After a follow-up blast Thursday, “They can’t believe what’s out there right now.”
Iran, whose ambassador to Lebanon was among those injured in the explosion – not a big surprise given the close ties between Iran and Hezbollah – also claimed Right to respond. The question is whether it will go beyond the missile strikes launched in response to Israel’s bombing of the Iranian consulate in April, which killed two senior generals. Although that barrage was unprecedented, most of the missiles were intercepted by Israel’s defenses, aided by a few other countries, including the United States, and the attack caused little damage.
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian also said this The United States shared responsibility For the attack, support was given to Israel, although Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said the United States had no advance knowledge of the operation.
What does this mean for the future of conflict — and is my phone safe?
David Ignatius of the Washington Post wrote about the attack on Wednesday Mark the beginning An “extremely dangerous era in cyberwarfare” where “any device connected to the Internet can potentially be turned into a weapon.”
But some perspective is required. The devices themselves were not weapons. Hackers have has been warned in the past It is possible to remotely detonate or explode a device’s battery using malware, but Cause of damage As seen this week, you need old-fashioned explosives. As far as technology goes, it’s not a huge advance Israel kills Hamas bomb maker Yahya Ayyash 1996 using an exploding cellphone.
From a technical perspective, what was impressive was the apparent ability to “hack” supply chains and insert explosives into many devices. There probably aren’t many other situations where this is possible. As Colin Demarest of Axios writesCiting concerns that the United States could be vulnerable to such an attack, “Pentagon top brass are unlikely to buy thousands of C-4-laden pagers.” Your iPhone is probably safe too.
But this week’s attacks represent something radically new, if not in technology, but in tactics. In international law, the “bubby trap” Prohibited in many situationsAnd given how many devices were detonated and civilians, including children, injured and killed, there are questions about whether the incident met international legal standards.
And then there’s the question of whether other actors — either nation-states or militant groups — might try to do something similar in the future.
Colin Clark, director of research at the Sofan Group, a think tank focused on counterterrorism, compared the attack to the early use of lethal drone strikes by the United States. Once primarily a US origin, killer drones are now widespread in both state and non-state sectors.
Wars like the current conflict in the Middle East are “often laboratories of innovation for all sides,” says Clark. “We’re going to try to get militant groups to develop new tactics and exploit emerging technologies in new ways.”
Given the large number of connected devices now in homes and businesses around the world, there is no shortage of potential targets. Even if it’s difficult for anyone to pull off a similar attack of this scale, Clark said it’s a precedent-setting example that “could give bad people a good idea.”
Few things spread faster than innovative ways to kill people in war.
