Military of Ukraine Apparently launching a drone strike against a weapons depot Wednesday in Russia’s Tver region, causing an explosion detectable from space.
The large-scale attack occurred near the village of Toropets, about 240 miles west of Moscow. Russian military blogger. According to Russian state mediaThe attack was so intense that the town of Toropet had to be evacuated.
The Tver offensive follows another visible Ukrainian operation on Russian soil: August’s shock offensive in Russia’s Kursk region that seized Area about 500 square miles. Both are likely Ukraine’s efforts to better position itself to end Russia’s two-and-a-half-year war, which has devastated parts of the country – particularly in the south and east. Although there are currently no plans for peace talks, Ukraine’s strategy could theoretically put it in a strong negotiating position in the event of negotiations, while also hurting Russia’s morale, resupply capabilities, and ability to launch destructive strikes inside Ukraine.
Ukraine has long argued that it could win more battlefield victories if the Biden administration allows the military to use U.S.-made long-range weapons to hit more targets in Russia.
The Tver strike and the Kursk offensive were probably meant to send a signal to the Allies that despite the war, Ukraine was not beaten and its allies were not supporting a lost cause. This is especially important in the lead-up to November’s US elections, when changes in the White House could affect US political and material support for Ukraine, because Former President Donald Trump and other Republican candidates signaled a cooling to continued material support for the war effort.
Basically, Ukraine’s message is: We are doing well in the fight against Russia, and will do better with more advanced weapons. However, despite Ukraine’s flashy successes since the Kursk invasion, it’s unclear — and perhaps unlikely — that the Biden administration will give Ukraine both the material and the go-ahead to use them as they wish.
Ukraine is trying to make the most of limited resources, but the United States is in a difficult position
According to Ukrainian sources, the target of the drone attack Cite reportingThere was an arms depot that housed conventional weapons such as artillery shells and ballistic missiles. Those weapons, as well as fuel tanks stored at the depot, may be responsible for the explosive visuals circulated on Telegram, a favorite platform of Russian military bloggers.
Experts point out that although the Tver attack has attracted attention due to the size of the explosion, it is not an isolated attack: “Ukrainian forces are conducting a series of drone strikes in Russian rear areas, targeting oil refineries and military airfields, military ammunition depots, and logistics facilities. ,” Riley BaileyA senior researcher in Russia at the Institute for the Study of War told Vox. “It seems very effective.”
Successful drone strikes, Bailey said, can Disrupting Russian military supplies Within Russia – as a long range In the summer of 2022, Ukraine launched a missile attack against Russian military installations inside Ukraine.. Disrupting logistics and resupply within Russia could, over time, hamper Russia’s ability to defend itself against an attack on its own soil; Waging a campaign of aggression within Ukraine; and forced the military to rebuild and reorganize its supply capabilities.
“If there is this continued threat of Ukrainian forces being able to achieve similar effects on several such logistics facilities, it will impose the same operational pressures that Russian forces faced back in the summer of 2022,” Bailey said.
Ukraine was always outgunned and outmanned against Russia; Without continued US and NATO support, Ukraine’s military cannot continue the war. But, the Ukrainian leadership has long argued, if the U.S. allows them to use long-range weapons to strike targets deep inside Russian territory, they could inflict far more significant damage on Russian logistics and tactics.
The apparently successful Tver attack comes as President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky He will present his victory plan to US President Joe Biden during his visit to the US in late September. Although details are scarce, the plan appears to be intended to use military force to force Russia into negotiations to end the war. One pillar of the plan likely rests on continued support for weapons and looser permissions on how those weapons are used. The United States has been reluctant to allow this so as not to be seen directly involved or escalating the conflict – and therefore inviting Russia to do the same.
However, fears about growing did not play on the battlefield, Amb William Courtneyan associate senior fellow at the RAND Corporation, told Vox.
“The Russian response, generally, has not escalated,” he said. “It’s been trying to adapt and counter.”
But if the Biden administration allows Ukraine to use long-range missiles in its arsenal to attack Russian positions, it may not have a major impact, according to Jennifer KavanaghSenior Fellow and Director of Military Analysis at Defense Priorities.
“With additional permits, even long-range missiles do not have as many Russian military targets in range, and Russia can shift valuable assets elsewhere, further mitigating any damage from a Ukrainian attack,” he said. Also, Ukraine will not be able to obtain enough of those weapons to mount the kind of sustained attack that would make a long-term difference in the war.
Still, Ukraine appears to be moving forward with its strategy Hopefully the Biden administration will get on board with a plan to win – and even if long-range capabilities are not the key to winning the war, they will at least make Russia’s war increasingly difficult and expensive to execute.
