Immigration increased dramatically around the presidential election.
After going on the offensive against former President Donald Trump’s immigration policies in 2020, the Democratic Party has seen a shift in public opinion in recent years, with more people taking a dim view of immigration and favoring more restrictive border policies.
Trump has jumped on the change, promising to revive — and expand — the tough immigration platform of his first administration. This includes his commitment to 2024 Mass deportation And Termination of birthright citizenship. He has blamed Harris for the influx of immigrants at the border for much of his vice-presidency, mislabeling him as President Joe Biden’s “border czar,” as have many others.
The question of what to do about immigration excites voters across the political spectrum. This is a particularly strong point for Republicans. 48 percent of those who consider it the most important issue facing the country in an ongoing Gallup poll.
It’s lower for independents and Democrats, but significantly, it’s the first time in more than a decade that such a large share of independents say it’s their top issue. And independents will likely decide the election: its share of independent voters has grown in recent years, especially in the United States Sunbelt swing state As seen in Arizona and Nevada High levels of immigration.
Overall, an overwhelming majority of registered voters a June Gallup Poll That they will only vote for a candidate who shares their views on immigration, or that it is one of many factors in determining who they will support.
More voters of all stripes want to see now The level of immigration decreases Anytime since the early 2000s after the terrorist attacks of 9/11 Fueled the rise of nativism. This is partly a response to record levels of migrant crossings over the past few years – unauthorized migrant crossings are a blow Record high in December — and the resulting pressure on the cities and frontier communities that absorbed them. (However, it is worth noting that there is a reduction for border crossings Five consecutive months.)
In response to the record crossings, the Biden administration has shifted from its previous focus on implementing more humane US immigration measures to limit the flow of people across the US-Mexico border. Biden has pursued policies to curb asylum that have shed little light between him and Trump Credit those policies for the recent decline in crossings.
At the same time, Biden has advanced efforts to protect undocumented immigrants living in the United States. Now, the Democrats 2024 platform Emphasizes border security and deterring unauthorized immigration while expanding legal access to the United States.
Biden’s policies have little to do with major changes to immigration. Rather, migration patterns have changed significantly in just a few years, and the US immigration system was not designed to deal with it.
Historically, immigrants came alone to find work, mainly from Mexico. Now, more people are coming from South America, the Caribbean, even China and Europe. They are increasingly bringing their families and seeking asylum. Many of them are fleeing persecution or instability in their home countries.
But regardless of what voters think is behind this surge, it’s clear that American public opinion on immigration has taken a sharp rightward turn over the past four years, and a bipartisan consensus has emerged in Washington to further restrict immigration. Polling suggests that a majority of voters broadly want it too — but it’s not clear how they think the United States should go about it.
Voters want to see stricter immigration enforcement, but disagree on what that means
Some proposals for immigration enforcement that were controversial a few years ago now have mainstream appeal.
These include Trump’s efforts to build a border wall, a defining policy of his 2016 campaign. He almost erects while in office 500 miles to a 30-foot border fenceMost of which replaced pre-existing fences or provided another layer of barriers where some already existed.
At that time, support for the project Close to a third of Americans were. But that share has since seemed to balloon. more than one vote managed by Recent months have shown that most Americans want a wall, and that support has grown substantially among independents. In a separate April Axios-Ipsos poll,42 percent of LatinosMany of them supported the construction of the wall, despite ties to the immigrant experience.
Voters won’t even draw the line at the kind of mass deportation scheme Trump is proposing. He promised “The largest internal deportation operation in American history,” targeting millions of undocumented immigrants A large-scale campaign and then forcibly detaining them in the new camp.
Whereas in 2016, 66 percent are American A CNN poll found opposition to mass deportations, a Axios Vibes survey by Harris Poll and a CBS/YouGov poll Among the shows that were conducted earlier this year 51 And 62 percent Americans support such a move. It also includes large shares of Hispanics and Latinos, who support mass deportation by 45 to 53 percent, depending on the poll.
A significant share of voters also warmed to the idea of ending birthright citizenship (meaning that if someone is born in the United States, they are automatically a citizen), with Axios/Harris Poll showed that 30 percent of Democrats and 46 percent of Republicans support it.
Voters seem less convinced of Biden’s efforts to limit access to asylum, which federal law guarantees to those who face a credible fear of harm or persecution in their home countries regardless of whether they cross the border.
Biden introduced a new policy earlier this year to allow asylum seekers who cross the border without permission to apply for protection in the U.S. when migrant crossings exceed a daily average of 2,500 a week. Less than half of Americans support the measure June Monmouth University Vote.
But that doesn’t seem to inspire strong opposition among his base: 38 percent of Democrats and 40 percent of independents approve. In another June Fox News poll, 57 percent of Americans overall supported the policy.
All of this suggests that Trump’s approach to immigration may be more popular than ever Mass protests He previously advocated against his immigration policies while in office.
Voters sympathize with undocumented immigrants already living in the United States
While voters support stricter immigration enforcement, they appear to be torn over what to do with undocumented immigrants who put down roots in the United States.
In apparent contradiction to the vote on mass deportation, most Americans appear to support a path to citizenship or legal status for nearly all of the population. 11 million undocumented immigrants Living in the US until 2022. An April Pew Research Center survey found that 59 percent are AmericansTrump supporters, including 32 percent, said undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay in the United States legally.
Support for pathways to citizenship for DREAMers An estimated 3.6 million are undocumented immigrants Those who came to the United States as children—it’s even more, according to one June National Immigration Forum/Bulfinch Group survey. About 530,000 Dreamers are currently protected from deportation under the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, and legislative efforts to provide them with a path to citizenship have repeatedly failed over the past decade.
Biden’s new program to legalize the spouses of undocumented Americans offers some relief to this population and represents the biggest legalization push since DACA. But only 500,000 spouses and 50,000 stepchildren may qualify for the new program.
Polling suggests there may be room for the next president to pair more legalization efforts with stronger immigration enforcement, as Biden tried to strike a deal with Congress earlier this year, but ultimately failed. The question is whether Democrats and Republicans can break the long-standing partisanship they’ve held on immigration issues, now that their voters are coalescing around certain policies.
