Violent crime levels fell significantly in the first half of the year, according to a new report Major cities are major associations.
Overall, violent crime dropped 6 percent and homicides dropped 17 percent in 69 cities compared to the same period last year. Columbus, Ohio, saw the largest drop in violent crime 41 percentAccording to an Axios data analysis. But cities including Miami, Washington, D.C. and Austin, Texas also saw big declines. Notably, though, New York City was not included in the data Other reports indicated that violent crime is declining there as well.
It’s hard to say what caused the decline, which comes after a major Covid-19 crime wave. This may be due in part to policies aimed at combating crime at the federal, state, and local levels. But it could also be a symptom that normal life in America has resumed post-pandemic — or a combination of those and other factors.
Republicans have long tried to use concerns about crime as a political smear against President Joe Biden’s administration. While former President Donald Trump doesn’t seem to be giving up that attack tactic just yet, Democrats can now use the new data as a defense. But not sure if it will work.
What is driving the decline?
A Statement on SaturdayPresident Joe Biden credited the $1.9 trillion economic stimulus bill passed by Congress in 2021, which allocated $15 billion for public safety and violence prevention efforts, to help reduce crime levels. He cited bipartisan gun control legislation that expanded background checks and encouraged states to adopt “red flag” laws to prevent those who pose a danger to themselves or others from obtaining guns.
But while those laws have helped, some experts are highly skeptical of attributing the decline to specific government initiatives.
“I think it’s too early to know exactly why murders and violent crimes are down,” said Jeff Asher, a crime researcher who runs the crime database. AH Datalytics. “In general, I’m skeptical of political actions that lead to an increase in crime or a decrease in crime, especially at the federal level.”
However, the crime epidemic was such an outlier in terms of the speed and magnitude that it took hold that Asher said it was possible that government spending on public safety helped prevent the sharp increase in violence.
Other social and psychological factors may also contribute. Anna HarveyA criminology researcher at New York University says that a “Strong body of evidence” showing that violent crime is often driven by emotions, such as stress or anger, as well as opportunity and the threat of being caught.
“The Covid pandemic appears to have potentially increased stress levels with high rates of violent crime during the pandemic and declining as the pandemic subsides,” he said. “The epidemic has also affected the likelihood that others will observe violent crime and report it to the police, ‘Will I get caught?’ Decision-Making Aspects.”
He said that foot traffic in cities dropped sharply during and after the pandemic and has slowly recovered, with many choosing to work from home or move away from the city to reduce the likelihood of being caught. Using cellphone location data, researchers at the University of Toronto found Many northern city centers in particular struggled to return to pre-pandemic levels of activity by at least November 2022.
“The trend reflects a gradual recovery in foot traffic, a gradual decline in violent crime rates,” Harvey said.
What this means for elections
This year, the offense may not rank as well top problem In the minds of most voters. A similar share of voters — between 1 and 4 percent — said crime was the country’s most important problem Gallup survey Every month this year, even crime has gone down. But it is still a big concern: a March Gallup Poll53 percent said they were worried “a great deal” about crime and violence.
Trump tried to capitalize on Harris, a former California federal prosecutor and attorney general, “by associating him with the movement.”Defend the policeHe also campaigned Intimidation about the criminal threat posed by undocumented immigrantsLinking the issue of crime to Biden’s unpopular handling of the US-Mexico border.
There is Harris push back against Those attacks, recently released a new ad that identifies him as a former “border state prosecutor” who “spent decades fighting violent crime.” Trump’s attacks on immigration are also not based in fact: unauthorized border crossings have occurred has been declining for five consecutive months And Trump has rebounded to a degree not seen since he was in office. The FBI also shows crime data Border towns that have some of the lowest crime rates in the country. And other studies have shown that US-born citizens are more than twice as likely Arrests for violent crimes are more likely than undocumented immigrants.
This does not necessarily neutralize the political threat posed by Republican attacks claiming that Democrats are weak on crime. Public perception often lags behind statistics, and it may be difficult for the party to change opinion after the Covid-era crime wave. But the next time Trump claims that crime is out of control, the Harris campaign will have new evidence to point to.
