Kamala Harris entered the presidential race two weeks ago as an underdog.
Since then, the Democrats’ vibes have been great — and Harris’ polling has gotten even better. But not as much progress as you might think. Not now.
According to polls, Trump is no longer the clear favorite to win. But Harris also did not take a clear lead. PollingEspecially in swing states, suggesting an extremely close race that could go either way.
To be clear: This is a big improvement for Democrats compared to where President Joe Biden’s numbers were.
Trump late last year acquired A sustainable poll lead over Biden nationally and in nearly every swing state. For Democrats, erasing that lead is a big deal, and it helps explain Trump’s campaign. flailing Late Trump’s party the thought They were sure to beat Biden, and now they’re not sure anymore.
But a Harris victory looks far from certain. That’s partly because, thanks to the magic of the Electoral College, national elections don’t determine the outcome, swing states do. And the state of play in the swing state is murky.
last week Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll The overall results were encouraging for Harris, showing him taking big leads in Michigan and smaller leads in Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. The catch is that they show Trump ahead in Pennsylvania and North Carolina and a tie in Georgia. If these polls are accurate, the election will come down entirely to the outcome in Georgia.
and other recent swing state elections — from the fox, Public Policy PollingAnd Emerson – Most swing states show Trump holding a small lead.
It’s possible that rare swing state polling has been slow to catch the national pulse of Harris’ improvement — and a new set of polls shows Harris gaining a clear advantage just around the corner.
But in both 2016 and 2020, Trump did significantly better in key Electoral College states than Democrats (and most pollsters) expected — enough to upset Hillary Clinton’s popular vote victory and nearly defeat Biden. Harris’ main challenge will be to prevent that from happening again.
Harris is in a honeymoon phase. What happens when the honeymoon is over?
The past two weeks have been about as good for Democrats as could have been expected, and much better than many pundits predicted. As the messy process of pushing Biden aside was completed, there was a joyous embrace of Harris as his replacement. Democrats believe they now have a real chance to win again. Despite being a sitting vice president, Harris in some ways embodies the new — a 59-year-old woman of color who hasn’t been president before — in contrast to Trump, a 78-year-old former president. He has a claim as a change candidate.
Harris has also benefited from quite positive media coverage. Partly it’s just because things, objectively, have gone well for him so far. But he is also benefiting from what is often called “honeymoon” event, where a newly promoted political leader receives positive press because of their novelty. And the thing about honeymoons is that they eventually end.
For example: When Harris was running in the 2019 Democratic presidential primary, his first debate — when he criticized Biden’s 1970s opposition to school desegregation busing went viral – Sending him was very successful Vote raised.
But he struggled to maintain that momentum as the campaign wore on. A few days later, he admitted that his views on modern busing policy are not that different from Biden’s. Later, he struggled to outline a coherent healthcare policy. And his campaign “became a hotbed of drama and gossip,” According to CNN. He eventually dropped out of the race before voting began.
This time around, Harris masterfully played the inside game to garner party support for his campaign. drew enthusiastic crowdsand he Raised a huge pile of cash. But there’s something else he hasn’t done yet. For example: Biden has not given an interview or press conference since resigning, which is Republican is grousing about. A running mate may also be his choice Controversy.
Democrats hope the honeymoon can be extended another three months. But inevitably, controversial issues will arise for Harris, as they do for all presidential candidates. His media coverage will be at least somewhat less positive. His campaign prospects will depend on how he weathers the storm that is sure to come.
