What causes global conflict?
Is it the lack of world leadership? Political polarization? Resource stress and climate change?
David Miliband sees a combination of all these factors and more. Former British Foreign Secretary has been leading for the last 10 years International Rescue Committee (IRC), a global NGO works on the front lines of conflict around the world to provide assistance to refugees and other displaced people.
At a recent Aspen Security Forum, Miliband sat down with Vox to discuss Gaza, Ukraine, Sudan and other conflicts, as well as the new British government, led by his former political party Labor and his brother Edward Miliband. Energy Secretary.
The conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Joshua Keating
We now have several years of data showing that the number of armed conflicts around the world is increasing in terms of sheer numbers and casualties. Is it fair to say that the so-called “long peace“Coming to an end?
David Miliband
I do not wish to declare the end of the long peace for one particular reason, which is that the “peace” was not very peaceful. It suggests a bit of a golden age that we have left and we shouldn’t fall into that trap.
What we do know is that there are up to a dozen major conflicts today – the main ones resulting in more than 1,000 battlefield deaths. [in one year] — and more than 50 different civil conflicts are ongoing. The two conflicts that garner the most attention, Ukraine and Gaza, are obviously in a different category than the dominant civil war, with Sudan being a prime example.
Second, we also know that there are many conflicts in many countries. There is not a single conflict going on in Cameroon or Nigeria or Myanmar.
Third, to your point, we know that civilians are increasingly victims of conflict and that there is much more internationalization of civil conflict.
So I think we are in a period of what we can describe as a combustible world. There’s a lot of tinder and a lot of fire.
Joshua Keating
Okay, so let’s talk about that fire. What are some of the underlying structural factors that you think may be causing this increase in the number of conflicts and their intensity?
David Miliband
Well, resource stress is a big conflict multiplier and you’ll see it The conflict/climate interface. We also know that political systems that fail to manage compromise are sources of conflict. That was the story of Syria, and you could say the same story of Sudan.
We also know the divisive elements of social media Driven toxicity.
Also this point about the internationalization of conflict — you’ve got more and more actors thinking regionally and making their power plays. And I guess the other thing is the biggest determinant of where civil conflict starts Where there was one before. So failure to resolve conflict is fuel for more conflict.
Joshua Keating
Recently, President Biden caused some controversy when he said he would have done more for it Compared to the Palestinian community Anyone, by pressuring Israel to allow more aid to Gaza. Given what you’re seeing from Gaza and the work the IRC is doing there, how would you rate the use of pressure by the international community to bring in more aid?
David Miliband
This is a very complex – perhaps uniquely complex – situation. But the sum total of efforts is still not providing for the Palestinians in Gaza or for the hostages held in Gaza. And so there is a great deal of frustration surrounding the dire situation facing civilians.
What we have said is that the number of trucks in a region is not an adequate measure of humanitarian aid. You can get a truck across the border, but what’s the point of help once you cross it?
Joshua Keating
Turning to Sudan, we are almost two decades removed from the era of the “Save Darfur” movement and the George W. Bush administration’s very close involvement with that country. Does it seem to have fallen off the global agenda a bit, given the staggering scale of the crisis there?
David Miliband
There is no doubt that there is less global interest in Sudan today than there was 20 years ago. Twenty years ago, there was terrible loss of life, but also tremendous international solidarity. Much has changed in the wider world since then. Mistakes and failures breed a lot of humility.
There is a lot of fatigue. There is also a new emphasis on African solutions to African problems. So it is the African Union that is at the forefront of diplomacy there, not the UN Security Council, which is a change.
But surely, the situation is getting worse, not better. It is the epitome of modern civil war: highly complex, involving internationally sponsored actors and territorial spillover. very dark
Joshua Keating
And then when it comes to Ukraine: it is very different from these other conflicts. It’s interstate, versus civil war. It is high on the international agenda. How does the human response to such conflicts differ?
David Miliband
The first way it is very different is that it is a middle-income country. Second, it borders Europe. The flow of refugees to rich countries is actually very unusual. 75 percent of the world are refugees Visit the poorest regions of the world. They go from Myanmar to Bangladesh or from there [Democratic Republic of Congo] In Tanzania. And those going to Europe are treated much better [than refugees from other conflicts].
But where we operate on the Eastern Front, on the frontline, the parallels with other conflict zones are very real. Daily survival is a problem, with basic services for people with health needs that were previously unmet. And there’s just an extraordinary level of war going on.
Joshua Keating
As a person in both government and NGOs, how do you make the case to voters in countries like the UK or the US that these international priorities are important, given how many serious issues are on the domestic agenda?
David Miliband
I think it is very important to say that you are not asking to solve international problems instead of solving domestic problems. We should not try to convince people that the quality of their schools or their roads is not a top priority.
Having said that, we have seen from Covid that problems can come from abroad if they are not dealt with there. This is an age where there is a real need to recognize that countries are more interdependent.
Joshua Keating
What would you like to see from Britain’s new government in terms of Britain’s international role?
David Miliband
Well, I think what we’re seeing is that geography still matters. The new government has made it clear they are watching [Britain’s] Values and interests aligned with its European neighbors. They don’t want to re-fight the Brexit battle, but there is no value in Britain and Europe pretending they are elsewhere.
They want British diplomacy to work in a multilateral system. They are going to be watching the American election very closely. And they’re going to make it clear that they see climate as a security issue, not just an environmental issue.
Joshua Keating
Is there a particular conflict or pressing issue that you think people should pay more attention to, that doesn’t get the kind of headlines we’ve discussed?
David Miliband
I mean, first of all, don’t forget about Syria. It has been running for more than a decade. There are 7 million civilians outside the country and the same number inside the country Those who are displaced.
Don’t forget the Rohingya in Bangladesh, but don’t forget there are 3 million Burmese Myanmar citizens internally displaced. Don’t forget Afghanistan where there are still serious economic needs. The West, while leaving militarily, promised not to leave politically or developmentally.
Then there are some places that are far more foreign to Western visitors: West Africa, particularly Francophone Africa. There are many dynamics in the region, but also many challenges.
You know, we are [the IRC] increasing I’m not really sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing.
