After years of unrest, Venezuela held national elections on Sunday. Voters of various political affiliations hoped the contest would end the political strife and economic woes that had gripped the country for a decade. But with most votes counted, incumbent Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez both declared victory.
Maduro claimed 51 percent of the vote, while González received 44 percent, according to the National Electoral Commission. But Gonzalez was quick to challenge those results, his party claimed in their exit polls Showed the victory of the opposition Like 70 percent of the vote. Several countries, including the United States, have expressed doubts about Maduro’s victory due to alleged irregularities and the inability of international election observers to carry out their duties in many cases.
Maduro exercises significant control over the government, including parliament and the judiciary. Although the Electoral Commission is nominally independent, the opposition claims it has acted in favor of the Maduro government.
For now, Gonzalez and his allies, as well as US officials, have asked for tabulated results from election authorities and told supporters to remain calm. Smaller protests have spread since the regime in Caracas Maria Corina accused Machado and other opposition leaders of planning a cyber attack against the country’s electoral machinery on Monday.. Venezuelans rose up against the Maduro government in 2014, 2017 and 2019. The opposition has called on followers to remain calm, but if protests resume, it could mean more repression and violence.
Maduro’s victory is no surprise
Sunday’s results mean Maduro looks set for a third term in office – something that was not possible before his predecessor and mentor Hugo Chavez amended the constitution in 2009 to remove presidential term limits.
But Maduro backed away from his authoritarian tendencies in October 2023, when his government agreed to free and competitive elections in exchange for further easing of US sanctions (Chevron is allowed to operate in Venezuela from 2022).
But this past January the Supreme Court — understood to be strongly aligned with Maduro and his followers, the Chavistas — A popular opposition leader was interrupted (former lawmaker and longtime opposition activist Machado) from running for office for the next 15 years due to alleged financial irregularities from his time in parliament. Then, when a coalition of opposition parties tried to rally around another candidate, the government barred him from running days before the registration deadline.
At the last minute, the opposition rallied around Gonzalez, a retired diplomat, who was not widely known before the presidential race.
Even with these tactics, polling indicates that González poses a credible threat to Maduro; Gonzalez Around 65 percent of the vote was expectedAccording to multiple surveys.
“If Maduro had both the ability and the will to shut this thing down completely, he would have done it by now — so he either lacks the will or the ability,” Will Freeman, a fellow in Latin American studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Vox. “My guess is that he lacks power, there is some kind of internal politics within Chavismo, some kind of internal constraint preventing him from taking more radical steps like banning Gonzalez or arresting Maria Corina Machado.”
Yet, while the opposition may have posed a threat to Maduro’s regime, they were not necessarily seeking to preserve political order. “I think they are [were] It’s quite realistic that they have to work with some Chavista-controlled institutions,” Freeman told Vox — institutions like the military, judiciary and parliament. “Nowhere has the opposition said they want to hold a plebiscite and write a new constitution, which would be the only real way to make a clean break.”
Maduro’s Chavismo, rather than being practiced as a consistent socialist ideology, is more about understanding the United States as an interloper in Venezuelan politics — and the opposition as their proxy. It is not entirely without foundation. Given a freak 2020 coup attempt Which involves the extreme anti-US stance towards Americans and Maduro, with the Trump administration backing a challenger who declared he was the real president.
But the ruling class’ priority is not the interests of Venezuelans or the advancement of autonomy. They are very much about maintaining control of the justice system and avoiding prison time under a new government — as well as access to the wealth they gain from government contracts and oil rents. Venezuela is South America’s most oil-rich country, which still drives the country’s economy despite tough US sanctions on the industry. Lack of investment and production under Maduro.
With six more years of Maduro seemingly in store, Venezuelans are likely in for more of the same: government corruption, stark inequality, mass poverty, and state repression and violence. Voters who had pinned their hopes on the opposition could take to the streets in protest – but as long as the military remains aligned with Maduro, the protests are unlikely to provoke a change in leadership.
“The international community is watching, and we will respond accordingly,” a senior US State Department official said during a press call on Monday.
But what that response might look like is unclear. The United States reimposed sanctions in April after easing them last October based on Maduro’s election concessions. And the Biden administration released Maduro ally Alex Saab in a prisoner exchange deal Earlier this year – Depriving the United States of key benefits.
Venezuelans have suffered. The opposition raised hopes.
After Chávez was elected in 1998, poverty fell due to socialist government programs, but his mismanagement of the oil sector – also of various kinds US embargo — meaning, over time, there wasn’t enough money to support those programs. Chávez also severely damaged democratic institutions, yet he remained extremely popular among Venezuelans, especially among the working class. Maduro, once Chávez’s bodyguard, continued and even accelerated Chávez’s authoritarian tendencies, without actually being able to support the socialist measures that made his predecessor popular. Venezuela’s economy has spiraled in particular since he took power, prompting an increase in immigration from the country — to neighboring Colombia and the United States.
For those who stayed, life unraveled amid growing economic uncertainty; Although inflation has cooled to 50 percent, In recent years it has been as high as 130,000 percent, due to falling oil prices and economic sanctions imposed by the United States. Even though inflation is improving, wages have not risen to offset that 50 percent rate.
The common man, unable to afford the basic necessities of life, hoped for a return to more prosperous times. And perhaps just as important, was the hope that the 7.7 million Venezuelans who fled the country for better opportunities elsewhere or to escape persecution, would return and help rebuild the country.
Now, that future seems unlikely. Yet, Venezuelans are now taking to the streets, despite this Credible allegations of serious human rights violations Extrajudicial killings against security forces, excessive force against protesters, politically motivated prosecutions, illegal detention and torture.
