As Democrats rally around Vice President Kamala Harris as their potential new nominee, their public mood is upbeat. Now, they hope, the party has a nominee who can take the fight to Trump — and win.
Those hopes are not yet supported by polling data, which currently shows Harris on the losing end
Harris’s approval rating is not good (38 percent approval, 50 percent disapproval Average of five thirty eight) he trailed Trump nationally by about 2 points, averageAnd something public vote Pitting Almost everyone behind him against Trump in swing states, sometimes far behind.
Now, those polls aren’t worth much because voters don’t really know Harris. Maybe he’ll run a smart, strong campaign and win them over. Maybe the excitement his election ticket brings will supercharge the enthusiasm.
may be
But Harris has some very real weaknesses as a candidate that could turn things around.
Namely, he will be attacked as a liberal elitist in San Francisco. Instead of being able to get a clean slate, he will be blamed for the record of the Biden administration. And his tenure at the top of national politics has seen his fair share of complaints and staff unrest.
(Her race and gender will also shape how she’s perceived, but they’re not reasons to assume she can’t win. And it’s worth evaluating her record as well as her political persona on their own terms.)
Trump has serious weaknesses of his own, and it’s certainly possible for Harris to win. But he doesn’t start out as a favorite, and he has some real work to do.
Harris would be attacked as a liberal elitist of San Francisco
Biden’s withdrawal and Harris’ endorsement were met with furor from the Democrats’ donor base. $81 million Pouring into campaign coffers in less than 24 hours. Incidentally, I heard tremendous optimism from people in my (educated coastal urban) circles that Harris would be a far superior candidate to Biden.
Indeed, if the presidential election were conducted among educated coastal urbanites, Harris would surely win by a walk. But in reality, a winning candidate also needs the votes of other demographics, including those who don’t much like educated coastal urbanites.
Perhaps the biggest election story of the past decade has just happened Polarization of education, where college-educated voters increasingly lean toward Democrats while non-college voters lean more toward the GOP. These changes were arguably decisive in tipping the Midwestern swing states — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan — toward Trump in 2016. Biden — “Joe from Scranton” — turned them around a bit in 2020, enough to win an Electoral College. Remarkably, Trump made significant gains among voters of color without degrees that year, and 2024 polling suggests this trend may continue.
Because of this some Democrats arguedThat their national party has lost the ability to communicate with non-college voters, that the party’s donor and employee classes have become so dominated by educated coastal elites that they no longer speak the same “language” as swing-state voters, and their values are different from theirs. has diverged dramatically.
Harris is very good at speaking the language of the Democrats’ superior voter base. That’s how he got into San Francisco and California politics out of the blue, and that’s why he had an early boost to his 2020 presidential campaign. It’s also a major reason why, after that campaign flopped, he was still picked as Biden’s running mate (Biden’s campaign was Flooded with similar donations after his election).
But can he convince Midwestern swing voters that he’s on their side, that he doesn’t see them as “”deplorable,” that he is not a San Francisco liberal? Can he “speak” to voters in a convincing way? We just don’t know yet. While he’s made some campaign appearances in swing states, doing so as the nominee means he’ll be in the spotlight in a new way, with far more stakes.
Harris must defend the unpopular record of the Biden administration
It is probably unfair to place too much blame on Harris for his low approval numbers when the main reason for them is probably that he is part of the Biden-Harris administration.
And if most Americans aren’t happy with the administration Harris has been a part of, that will be a problem for his candidacy.
In an effort to push Biden off the ticket, there is a tendency among Democrats (who generally believe Biden has done a good job) to blame his political problems on his age rather than his record. They theorized that the policies were good but there was a communication problem in explaining how good they were
Polling, however, has been pretty consistent about how the American public believes the administration has handled itself The main problem is badly — most notably the economy, immigration, and foreign policy, with voters Saying consistently Trump would do better on all three counts.
Harris was not personally responsible for policy on inflation, the border, the Afghanistan withdrawal, or the Israel-Gaza war. (Republicans falsely called him the “border czar,” while Harris was tasked with a more limited role in addressing the “root causes” of unauthorized immigration abroad.)
It is true that Harris strongly defended the administration’s policies on these matters. It would be difficult for him to criticize a decision (since doing so would raise the question of why he didn’t criticize it earlier). And it will be hard for him to make the case that he will operate differently from Biden considering he has already been vice president for four years.
Usually, when a new nominee runs for president, they may make idealistic promises of change and break with how the incumbent is doing where the public wants change. It will be tough for Harris. He doesn’t start with a clean slate; He is burdened by what has happened. and is public unhappy About how things have gone under Biden.
Harris has a turbulent political history in national politics
Finally, there is the question of whether Harris will be able to run an effective and successful presidential campaign. Harris has an ideological, meme-worthy image of political appeal that has spread among Democrats eager to turn the page on Biden, but his track record at the top of national politics is more mixed.
It started with his 2020 presidential campaign, which actually ended in December 2019. There is no shame in running in your party’s presidential primary and losing Every defeat is not the candidate’s “fault” but a reflection of the larger situation. A loss can better position a candidate for success next time.
But Harris’ campaign was fraught with reports of public missteps and behind-the-scenes chaos.
He had a viral moment where he confronted Joe Biden on the debate stage about his historic opposition to busing policies, but days later, He admitted His views on what the current busing policy should be did not differ from Biden’s.
Harris has also struggled to answer questions about his health care policies, at times supporting a version of Medicare-for-all that would eliminate private health insurance and at other times saying he does not support such a thing.
Internally, his campaign “became a hotbed of drama and gossip,” According to CNN, with finger-pointing leaks constantly spilling out from rival parties. He gave his sister Maya a lead role, and The New York Times reported That “a campaign strategist said it was impossible to tell whether Maya Harris was speaking for herself, as an adviser or as a representative of her sister.” But in both of these stories, sources argued that the candidate’s own strategic indecision was perhaps the campaign’s biggest problem.
None of that stopped him from picking Biden as his running mate in 2020. Then, early in his tenure, a similar story emerged in the vice president’s office. In a high-profile interview with NBC’s Lester Holt in June 2021, Harris struggled to answer questions about the administration’s border policy, and claimed “we’ve been to the border” even though he hadn’t. Later, he stopped his interview availability, allegedly For fear of making more gaffes. (For all the scrutiny Biden has received for doing several high-profile interviews, it’s worth noting that Harris hasn’t been omnipresent either.)
Meanwhile, the story after the story Harris’ office spoke of staff chaos and departures. A former aide made scathing comments In the Washington Post: “It is clear that you are not working with someone who is willing to prepare and work. … With Kamala you have to endure constant soul-destroying criticism and her own lack of self-confidence. So you’re constantly kind of bullied and it’s not really clear why.”
To be sure, Donald Trump’s campaign and staff drama in the White House was much more intense (and it didn’t stop him from winning in 2016). And news of conflict in Harris’ office has decreased Over the past year, perhaps, Harris has found advisers with whom he feels more comfortable. But now he’s suddenly back in the spotlight, and the pressure is on. So the question now is will he rise to the challenge, oversee and implement a strategy and team that can win?
Harris is the underdog – but he is can victory
None of this means Harris can’t win outright.
The above issues may pose serious challenges to its promotion. And yes, he is currently leading the polls. But challenges can be met and votes can change. Elections are more than three months away.
Harris’ opponent, Donald Trump, Also unpopular. Democrats hope he can lean on his past as a former prosecutor to “judge” the case against him. Trump’s performance in the first debate was no big shaker; He may compare unfavorably with Harris in another—if he agrees to do so (and if he does not, he may criticize him for it).
Harris would indeed strengthen the liberal base and probably make him more attractive Young voters And Black voters, which Biden has struggled with. He clearly has more energy and ability to campaign than Biden at this point.
And if the past month should tell us anything, it’s that the future of politics is never set in stone.
