In his 1924 novel Magic MountainGerman writer Thomas Mann used an idealized alpine sanatorium as a metaphor for the torpor and self-delusion of European elites in the years leading up to the catastrophe of World War I.
I couldn’t help but think about the book while attending this year Aspen Security ForumThat took place in a tony Colorado mountain town amid one of the busiest and most volatile news weeks in recent memory, including an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, the selection of arch-popular Sen. J.D. Vance as Trump’s running mate. , and showing polls increasing probability That Trump will return to office. It’s ok before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, though questions about the ticket’s future were a constant backdrop at the convention.
Unlike Mann’s laid-back Europeans, of course, the international government officials, military officials, and corporate officials attending the annual gathering in the Rockies were there not only for their health and mountain air, but also to discuss various pressing security issues. The militarization of space in Gaza and Ukraine and the role of AI in warfare.
Still, as attendees watched the sessions with one eye on their iPhones to keep up with developments at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, it was hard to avoid assessing that the future momentum of many of the issues under discussion depended significantly on the outcome of the election. in November — an election that, with the exception of Biden, is more uncertain than ever.
Trump’s paradox
President Biden significantly based his case for re-election Sort of an achievement Aspen-like gatherings have promoted and celebrated: NATO expansion, a multilateral response to the Ukraine invasion, and building a network of alliances in the Pacific to counter China. Vice President Kamala Harris enters the race with less foreign policy experience than Biden, though she has been involved in the administration’s diplomatic efforts in the Middle East and Central America and will likely draw her circle of advisers from Biden’s current team or other names. Aspen is very familiar with attendees and speakers. A major shift from Biden’s approach to Europe, China and the Middle East seems unlikely with a Harris presidency.
In contrast, Trump has pledged to quickly end the war in Ukraine — a promise celebrated on placards in Milwaukee — perhaps by pressuring Kiev to negotiate the region with Moscow. He has long been skeptical of European security alliances, including NATO, and has recently advised Taiwan “We Should Pay for Defense” Against an onslaught by China, that has sent the stock prices of the island’s key semiconductor makers plummeting going later. Vance, Trump’s new running mate, is one of the leading skeptics in Congress of efforts to preserve the “liberal international order,” especially when it comes to the war in Ukraine.
From the podium in Aspen, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) pushed back on the idea that the GOP has taken an isolationist turn, describing Recently adopted Republican platform As a “Reaganesque peace-through-strength” document that emphasized building up the US defense industry and modernizing the military.
But Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), a close Biden ally, told me on the sidelines of the convention Thursday (among media appearances discussing Biden’s then-undetermined fate). That “during his time as president, Trump showed an uneven and erratic nature to his foreign policy that could make it really difficult to convince our closest and most trusted allies that we were still a reliable partner.”
While administration officials and allies abroad are discussing what can be done to Trump-proof US foreign policy, there are limits to that effort. Even as he spoke of the Biden administration’s record on supporting Ukraine and working to strengthen NATO, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken acknowledged, “Every administration has an opportunity to set its policy. We cannot lock in the future.”
Keep calm and carry on
For the most part, foreign officials who spoke at the conference refused to take the bait when asked if they were concerned about Trump’s return. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, whose country could be most directly affected by the election’s outcome, told an Aspen audience, “We believe in American leadership and we believe that the American people want their partners and allies to be strong. Also… whatever the outcome. Either way, we will work with America.”
There was a sense from several officials that Trump’s presidency was a movie they had seen before and were more prepared for it this time around. Singapore’s Defense Minister Ng Ying Hen told the crowd, “Let me remind you that we have worked with the Trump administration for the meeting in Singapore” — likely a reference to the 2018 summit between the former president and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. “He was very happy with Singapore because we have a trade surplus with you … I’m not that concerned.”
Even less concerned about a new Republican administration were representatives of the defense and technology industries — also heavily represented in Aspen.
“I think it’s potentially positive for a tech company for a Trump administration that’s trying to work” with the Defense Department, said Tara Dougherty, CEO of defense software company Govini. “They are already talking for the Manhattan Project [artificial intelligence] That shows they’re serious about developing and adopting AI for military purposes.” He added that in Vance, Trump chose “a running mate who comes from this space.”
As at last week’s NATO summit, attendees often argued that one of Trump’s main complaints about US allies — that they free-ride on American security guarantees and don’t pay for their own defense — is less applicable today than it was during his tenure, the war in Ukraine. And global defense budgets are rising amid concerns over China’s growing power.
“This is a different Europe than the Europe we’ve been complaining about for years,” said General Christopher Cavoli, commander of the US military’s Europe Command. “This is a Europe that recognizes what the burden is and must share it … This is precisely the moment when American interests will be most advanced by continued participation” in Europe’s defense.
Coming down from the mountain
Cavoli’s comments (he didn’t specifically mention Trump or the election) were met with applause from a room that didn’t need much convincing about the value of America’s global commitments. But Vance would probably argue that’s the problem.
A speech at this year’s Munich Security Conferencea gathering that draws a similar crowd to Aspen, the now-VP candidate described his view that continued military support for Ukraine as an end result “represents the majority of American public opinion, although I don’t represent the majority opinion” of senators in Munich.” (The For what price, Recent polls show that most Americans still support continued or increased aid to Ukraine, although there is a stark partisan divide.)
Speaking to Vox, Coon rejected the idea that an internationalist foreign policy might be a hard sell to voters. “The strength of our alliances around the world has been the cornerstone of our security and our prosperity for decades,” he said.
But on stage, former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, an example of an earlier generation of global centrist Republicans who have now disappeared, was somewhat contrite. “Those of us who are internationalists and believe in globalization” don’t always consider its impact on some American communities, he said. “There are unemployed coal miners and unemployed steel workers and kids who can’t get a decent education who really wonder why we’re doing what we’re doing internationally.”
At gatherings like Aspen, there is always talk of the importance of winning over international partners to American foreign policy priorities. Increasingly, there is a sense in this conversation that America has to win, too, regardless of who tops the Democratic ticket. But as anyone who’s read Mann’s books knows, Magic Mountain can be a tough place to get off.
