After weeks of pressure, speculation and handwringing at the highest levels of the Democratic Party, President Joe Biden has decided to drop out of the 2024 presidential race.
The President issued this Written statement on Sunday afternoon, said he believed his resignation was in the country’s best interest, adding that he would address the nation later in the week about his decision. Biden’s decision came after weeks of public and private pleas from Democrats who concluded he could not beat former President Donald Trump.
Moments later, Biden was released Another statement supporting Vice President Kamala Harris To take his place on the ticket. Several other leading Democrats— Bill and Hillary ClintonThe Congressional Black CaucusSense. Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) — also quickly endorsed Harris, expressing a desire to quickly unify the party behind him.
Such endorsements do not make Harris the president — the new nominee will be formally chosen by thousands of delegates attending the Democratic National Convention starting Aug. 19. But if such approvals continue to grow, they could prevent another prominent Democrat from challenging Harris and all but ensure his nomination.
Alternatively, other Democrats could put their names in the debate. What happens next is unclear. Some of the party said “Blitz is elementary“or real”Open conference” where delegates are freed to support whoever they want. Others see it as chaotic folly. Whether it’s possible at all will first depend on whether someone else jumps in.
What is clear is that the presidential race is entering uncharted territory for the modern age. Since the emergence of the modern nominating process in the 1970s, no winner of a primary has dropped out of the race before the convention. And no major party nominee has entered the race so close to November.
It is worth pausing to appreciate the dramatic turn of events that took place. This was President Biden just a few months ago journey through Early season with barely any opposition. But now, his party’s support has crumbled under him to the point where he cannot effectively continue his campaign.
The catalyst for this collapse was Biden’s June 27 debate performance, which will surely now go down as the most disastrous general election debate in US presidential history. But what the debate has really done is supercharge concerns about Biden’s electoral prospects, stamina, health and ability that have long simmered beneath the surface of Democratic politics.
Doubts about Biden didn’t start with the controversy, but the controversy suddenly made them impossible to ignore — and spurred the party to action.
What happens next, though, is unclear. Some Democrats believed that Biden was a uniquely flawed nominee because of his age and might have performed better against a different nominee. Trump is unpopular. But others are more pessimistic, suspecting that the party faces deep electoral problems and that any replacement nominee is going to have a tough road ahead.
Biden continued his campaign despite partisan skepticism. Controversy made those doubts impossible to ignore.
At the start of Biden’s first term, many in the political world questioned whether he would run for a second term, for two reasons: one is his age, as he is already the oldest US president and will be 82 on Inauguration Day. Another is his poor poll numbers; His job approval was disappointed From late 2021.
But Biden never seemed to seriously consider not running. she said from the beginning of his term that he wanted to run again, and when Democrats’ midterm election performance was better than many expected, it seemed to strengthen his case that he could. So he made his re-election campaign official In April 2023.
All of the party’s rising stars opted against launching a risky primary challenge to an incumbent president — otherwise they would have drawn sharp criticism in the party for dividing Democrats and hurting Biden’s chances in the general election. So Biden easily fended off challenges from Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) and author Marian Williamson.
But doubt remained. Biden skeptics raised eyebrows at him Avoidance of the President The traditional pre-Super Bowl interview, his reluctance to press conferences, and claims in a special counsel report that his memory appears to be impaired. In February, New York Times columnist (and Vox co-founder) Ezra Klein created a stir By writing that Democrats should choose a different nominee at the convention, Biden didn’t mind the rigors of the campaign.
Then, on to Biden Reasonably enthusiastic performance In his State of the Union address in March, he temporarily put those concerns to rest But that didn’t improve his polling — by then, he was consistently trailing Trump nationally and in nearly every swing state. months. He is looking for tracks to defeat.
that why Biden’s team surprisingly offered to debate Trump so early, a highly unusual move. The hope was that Biden, with a strong performance, could reset the race, refocus attention on Trump and once again address concerns about his age.
The opposite happened: Biden’s halting performance cast a spotlight on his ability to run the campaign (and serve four more years) that never went away.
He lost the media first. Various liberals in the debate for hours Commentator called him to exit The nation’s mainstream journalists, sensitive to scandal and a cover-up, have focused intently on reporting Biden’s true status.
Still, with Biden hoping he could keep the team on board with a flurry of interviews and public events, the debate was a one-off. Some of these went reasonably well, others Less so. But his Fundraising has declinedAnd public and private pressure from Democrats urged him to step down Just keep growing — until Biden finally saw the writing on the wall.
The big question going forward: Is the Democrats’ electoral problem just for Biden?
So what happens next?
Obviously, a lot will depend on who the nominee is. Obviously, Vice President Harris is the top contender right now. If the party simply falls in line behind him, there may not be much suspense when the Democratic convention begins on August 19. A serious rivalry though, so strap in for a roller coaster ride next month.
But there is another big underlying question that we don’t yet know the answer to. Namely, how much of Democrats’ electoral anxieties about Joe Biden — and how much — reflect deeper problems for the party as a whole?
Some argue that Democrats are doing well, and that it’s only Biden who is the problem; Voters who have jumped on the president because of his age or his inability to serve another four years, and because Trump remains flawed and unpopular, and another Democratic nominee will likely defeat him. For example, Democratic Senate incumbents A remarkably good turnout than biden. This suggests to some that with a different name at the top of the ticket, the team will be in great shape.
Others argue that the Democrats’ problems will likely outlast Biden. Expressing dissatisfaction with inflation under Biden, as well as foreign turmoil, May have convinced voters that Trump wasn’t so bad after all. public opinion on main issue moved to the right. And there is not a lot Voting Any possible Democratic looks alternative Beat Trump.
Some of these pessimists still believe it was worth pushing Biden because he has little chance of turning things around, but they insist any replacement would be underdogs and face a very tough road ahead.
We now know for sure that the Democrats decided to roll the dice, hoping to improve their competitiveness in a race they were on course to lose by putting their unpopular nominee.
Update, July 21, 3:50 pm: This piece was originally published before July 21 and has been updated to include more information about options ahead of the Democratic National Convention.
