After the attempted assassination of President Donald Trump, the attempted assassination of one of his rally appearances and the wounding of two others, it didn’t take long for the political world to turn its attention to a crass but incredibly important issue: What will this mean for Trump politically?
There are basically two different instinctive – and opposing – reactions between commentators and social media posters.
First reaction: It’s a political boon for Trump that makes him more likely to win in November.
Second response: Don’t go too far, it might not make much difference.
Without knowing the future we cannot say for sure. But they each have some convincing points behind them. Here is the argument being put forward.
Will the shooting be a great help for Trump?
History is full of examples of leaders who use near-miss assassination attempts as an excuse to centralize power and crack down on civil liberties. Since Trump is not in office, he cannot do so now, and the key question is whether it will affect his ability to win. many (including some) A vocal Trump critic) believe it will help his chances dramatically for some combination of the following reasons.
This will activate the maga base: For much of this year, the aisle has had less interest in political news from both parties, but there are questions about whether Trump’s base is particularly less united than it was years ago. Conservative news sites were watching Annoying traffic Numbers and Trump’s campaign There was a fight including small-donor fundraising.
That began to change after Trump’s felony conviction on May 30, which to expose A huge boost in donations to Trump’s campaign that wiped out Biden’s cash edge. Perhaps an assassination attempt on Trump will be a similar catalyst: a lightning bolt of attention that turns his base on his side and ensures they get elected.
This may earn him the sympathy of – or look harsh on – a typical voter: Sometimes, if a top politician is shot but survives, there is an outpouring of sympathy and support for them. When President Ronald Reagan was shot (and more seriously injured) in 1981, his approval rating rose from about 60 percent to about 8 percent. Gallup polls.
For Trump, a lot of digital ink was spilled analyzing the potential political value of the photos he took right after the shooting, especially notably Associated Press photo by Ivan Vucci A bloodied Trump is shown raising his fist while an American flag is behind him. His fans opinion on social media that it showed him”difficult,” with many comparing it to the 1912 incident when Theodore Roosevelt was shot during a campaign speech and finished his speech. (The comparison isn’t perfect: Trump didn’t finish his speech, and Roosevelt lost that election.)
This may help him among low-faith voters: Some commentators, like my colleague Eric Levitz, have argued that a larger trend in politics is “voters with low levels of trust in society and the political system moving to the right.”
Regardless of the facts surrounding the shooting, the conspiracy theories surrounding it will inevitably be twisted to advance the narrative that “they”—the Democrats, the media, the shadowy powers that be—wanted it to happen and wanted it to happen and are responsible for it. Some of Trump’s allies Already progressing publicly As arguments; If they resonate, they could further extend the GOP’s emerging advantage among low-faith voters.
Or would it not make much difference?
Often, when pundits are hyping a supposedly game-changing political moment, it’s useful to take a step back and ask skeptically: Will it actually change anything?
Elections are still about four months away: That’s a long time between now and November 5, 2024. Many other events will consume the news now and then; Just last week, the biggest political story was whether Joe Biden could retain the nomination. It is far from clear that this is the event that will depend on the rest of the campaign which is still far from over.
Polling in this race has been steady for a long time: Trump and Biden are two very well-known candidates and polls in this race Not moved much Throughout the campaign. For example, Biden’s bad debate — one of the most dramatic events of the cycle — was cable Lowers his position National polling averages about 2 points.
The Trump/Biden polling was very hard to miss. As this event was, the vast majority of voters have long formed their opinions about Trump and seem unlikely to change their minds due to trauma. And if there is a short-term “sympathy bounce” for Trump, it may not last. (Reagan’s approval bounce after shooting him Only lasted a few months.)
The shooter doesn’t fit easy political narratives: We still know nothing about 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks’ motive for shooting Trump, and conspiracy theorists don’t care much about the facts. Depending on what we learn about his background and motivations, arguments blaming Democrats or shadowy power brokers for his actions may not come across as convincing to many voters in the general public.
We still don’t know how Trump will respond
Another difficulty in predicting what this will mean is that we still don’t know exactly how Trump will respond.
One can imagine him trying to stay above the fray, sound president and use broadly appealing speeches to unite the country.
In reality, he is still Donald Trump, a politician often motivated by complaints and revenge. Being who he is, he may well be overshadowed, turning off voters that he might have a chance to win for him and convincing them that restoring him to office would mean more turmoil.
So nothing is set in stone. An assassination attempt on Trump did not guarantee his victory. This may help his chances. But this promotion will be about more than what happened on Saturday.
