Former President Donald Trump is the ninth US president to be the target of an assassination attempt. The last was President Ronald Reagan, who, like Trump, survived an attack by a lone shooter. But that was in 1981—a decidedly different political moment than today’s highly polarized environment. And that means it’s uncertain whether the political benefits that Reagan saw after surviving his efforts will accrue to Trump.
On March 30, 1981, Reagan was leaving the Hilton Hotel in Washington, DC, where he had given a speech to members of the AFL-CIO. As he raised his hand to salute the crowd gathered outside, six shots were fired at him. President Reagan and three others were wounded, including Press Secretary James Brady, who was incapacitated. The bullet that struck Reagan hit his heart, but not his ribs, causing a collapsed lung. Reagan was rushed to the hospital, and emergency surgery saved his life.
The shooter was John Hinckley Jr., who was later found not guilty Attempted murder by reason of insanity. He had no political motives: he was obsessed with actress Jodie Foster and thought he could influence the president by shooting him, just 18 years after the assassination of President John F. Kennedy.
Chaos ensued. While Reagan was incapacitated, there was a real question about who ran the country — and who controlled the nuclear arsenal at a time when Cold War tensions were at an all-time high, as Reagan entered office. A harder line in Moscow. Al Haig, Reagan’s Secretary of State, Falsely claimed he was in charge Because Vice President George HW Bush was on his way back from Texas; Under the Constitution’s succession clause, power passes to the Speaker of the House after the President and Vice President.
But once Reagan came through surgery and the immediate confusion was over, the assassination attempt was a temporary one integration effect on the country Reagan was able to project strength throughout the crisis and his recovery, cementing his image as a leader for all Americans. It built goodwill on both sides of the aisle and helped him advance key parts of his agenda in Congress.
There has been one since Trump’s assassination attempt on Saturday similar exposure Statements by government officials congratulating the former president and urging the nation to unite to end political violence. But unlike in 1981, it is not clear that much will change politically.
Both Reagan and Trump refused to budge
Trump tried to project power after the assassination attempt.
After the gunman failed to hit him directly, Trump stood up amid a barrage of Secret Service agents who saw him raise his fists in the air, blood dripping from his mouth, in a gesture of defiance.
He is on Sunday announcement That he would not allow the assassination attempt to alter his travel schedule for the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, which begins Monday.
Reagan similarly projected resilience after facing attempts on his life.
Reagan Went to hospital Immediately after the shooting, there was a limousine ride, despite coughing up blood. He made jokes that endeared him to the masses: “Honey, I forgot to duck,” he to say First Lady Nancy Reagan. In his memoirs An American Life, He described how he told one of his doctors that he wished they were a Republican, to which they replied, “Today, Mr. President, we are all Republicans.”
Regardless of affiliation, Americans rallied around him during his recovery. Four days after the murder, he was captured in a much-circulated picture while in hospital, smiling and standing, holding his wife’s hand. After returning home, he walked from the car to the White House residence to show how well he was doing.
“Dressed in a bright red sweater over a white shirt, the president waved to the audience and turned to walk into the White House, resembling, as one aide later put it, ‘a championship golfer walking to the eighteenth green,'” wrote Dale Quentin Wilbur in his 2011 assassination attempt. In the book about hide raw under.
1981 was a different time
Despite some parallels between Trump’s and Reagan’s responses to their assassination attempts, Trump is operating in a completely different political environment.
Reagan was swept into office in the 1980 election promising to “Make America Great Again,” a slogan later adopted by Trump. It resonated at a time when many believed America’s best days were behind it amid high inflation, stagnant economic growth, the Iran hostage crisis, and rising Cold War tensions with the Soviet Union, which Reagan would carry on. Label an “evil empire”.
While there were divisions between Democrats and Republicans on many of these issues, it was nothing like the current climate where identity politics reigns supreme. Bipartisanship and moderation were more common on both sides of the aisle, and the media environment was more homogenous and far less round-the-clock than it is today. Although Reagan was a champion for socially conservative values, issues such as abortion and immigration did not come alive. Similar tribalism in US politics. Reagan himself would go on to pass major immigration reform in 1986 (something unthinkable in today’s divided Congress), and voter support for abortion. Does not fall neatly along party lines.
By mid-March 1981, before the assassination attempt, Reagan was achieving approval ratings As high as 60 percent. (On the other hand, Trump’s approval rating is hovering About 42 percent.) But the assassination attempt, and the way Reagan responded, garnered greater bipartisan support behind it and ultimately led to an optimistic national mood.
“On April 14, three days after I got home, the spaceship Columbia After the first voyage returned to Earth triumphant,” Reagan wrote in his memoirs. “The landings touched off tremendous excitement across the country, convincing me more than ever that Americans want to feel proud and patriotic again.”
Later that month, she gave birth to a baby Television address In a joint session of Congress – his first speech since the assassination attempt – he received repeated applause from the crowd. He devised an economic recovery plan Includes big tax cuts and later passed despite Democratic opposition, admitting “An attitude of frankness, openness and mutual respectwhich is characteristic of Congress deliberations.
“Thanks to some very good people, my health has improved a lot. I want to be able to say that about the health of the economy,” he said Said in the address.
By that May, Reagan’s approval ratings were up reached 68 percent. Although it didn’t last because of ongoing concerns about the economy, it was clear that Reagan “turned a near tragedy into a political victory,” Wilbur wrote.
Trump may feel a similar political boost in the coming months. But it’s unclear how far he can go in today’s hyperpartisan environment.
For Democrats, Trump still poses an existential threat to democracy in the November election. Trump’s Republican base believes the former president needs their support now more than ever. And that means both sides are still on the same, more treacherous collision course.
