Vice President Kamala Harris would be the obvious successor to President Joe Biden if he decides not to seek re-election this year, for a number of reasons.
Whether he will actually remain has been an open question since Biden’s disastrous debate performance on June 27, when he stumbled through his answers, offered non sequiturs on various topics and failed to communicate key achievements. These missteps came amid heightened scrutiny at his age and were followed by recent press appearances in which he has been confused. Names of principal personsand offers hard-to-follow answers.
That has led to discussions among pundits and grassroots Democrats about who will fill in for Biden with just under four months until Election Day. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer is a popular suggestion, as is California Governor Gavin Newsom.
But perhaps no one makes as much sense as Harris, who is already in a role designed to take over for presidents unable to continue their duties.
As VP, he is involved in the policy work of this administration, and has extensive experience in the White House that he can bring to the job. And she could be a strong candidate for many Democratic voters as the first black and South Asian woman to win the party’s presidential nomination, and as a younger, charismatic alternative to former President Donald Trump, the 78-year-old Republican nominee. Logistically, it would be fairly easy Transfer $91 million of Biden’s campaign funds to Harris (And transferring that money to someone else is even harder).
That said, Harris has real weaknesses — evident during his tenure as VP and as a 2020 presidential candidate — that could potentially let him down. Remarkably, His favorability ratings have sometimes lagged behind Biden’s When he was vice president, and faced a general criticism that he couldn’t do it Create a unique lane for yourself. When he ran for president in 2020, he took on similar issues, leaving people confused about what he stood for.
Taken together, there’s still a strong case for Harris, should Biden drop out of the race. Notably, though, he also has some key challenges to overcome.
Kamala Harris’s case for taking over for Biden
If Harris were to take over for Biden, he would receive some version of the benefits of being the vice president presented. Although there are important caveats, as my colleague Andrew Prokop has detailed, roughly two out of three incumbents won re-election.
As part of that benefit, Harris will be able to bolster his role in wins for the Biden administration — such as the Inflation Reduction Act, which would help lower prescription drug costs and invest in climate initiatives, and the bipartisan infrastructure act, which includes historic funding. Bridges and roads. He will also be able to point to the experience he gained as vice president and how it prepared him to become commander-in-chief.
It’s a strategy that Biden himself successfully employed in 2020, when he associated himself with the achievements of the Obama administration — and emphasized how He was often the “last one in the room”. When key decisions were being made.
“When you think about all these pieces of legislation passed by Congress, the vice president was part of the conversation with the president, with the cabinet, whether it was the infrastructure bill, or the IRA, or the CHIPS bill,” said former Labor Secretary Marty Walsh, who worked alongside Harris. did, previously told Vox. That experience, in itself, is significant and invaluable.
Since its collapse row, Harris has taken up the cause of abortion rights, meeting with advocates and voters across the country and rallying people in places like Wisconsin, Arizona and Florida.
The issue has been particularly motivating for Democratic voters and women in recent elections, with multiple ballot initiatives — such as those in Vermont and Michigan — passing with overwhelming support. During the 2022 midterm elections, protecting reproductive rights was a central policy for many voters and a decisive policy that helped energize Democrats. Harris’s defense of abortion access is a point that will allow him to draw a sharp contrast with Trump, who has taken credit for it. RoIts demise and the argument that abortion should be decided on a state by state basis.
In addition to his experience in the White House, Harris also brings his four years of legislative expertise in the Senate and a background in criminal justice reform from his time as Attorney General in California. While some of his tenure as vice president has been plagued by communication missteps, he was previously known for his viral moments questioning Trump appointees as a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee and made a big splash in 2019 when he faced Biden in a debate. His past position on the bus.
Harris could also spread the ticket with new energy. Numerous polls have shown that a majority of Americans do not want Biden on the ballot. July 2024 PBS News/NPR/Marist In the survey, that number stands at 56 percent, want to see Other than Biden or Trump.
Harris is likely to be that option. At 59, he is decades younger than either of the current nominees. And she is a symbol of both an increasingly diverse Democratic Party and the country, making her a candidate who could be especially inspiring to key voting constituencies, including black women. (In a July 2024 YouGov poll, Harris’s approval rating was 41 percent among adults overall, and 69 percent among black respondents.) This may bode well for good turnout and enthusiasm.
“She’s only the second black woman elected to the Senate, which is no small feat in a state like California,” said University of Maryland public policy professor Dr. Call me Carter. “So he’s shown that he can get voters, white, black, Latino and others, to come to the polls.”
Bypassing Harris for another candidate — especially a white one — could risk eroding support among black voters and other key Democratic constituencies, experts say. Target JainCEO of election analysis site Split Ticket.
“I think there will be a significant voter response,” Jain told Vox. “It will fracture the party and create a negative news cycle for quite some time, and the eventual nominee will be quite wounded and have a lot of ground to make up among black voters.”
Finally, on the logistical front, Harris will be able to make a slightly more seamless transition as he inherits Biden’s fundraising machinery and campaign staff as a former White House press secretary. Zen Saki explained in a TikTok post. “Structurally, he can just move the campaign staff, he can take away all their resources,” Psaki noted.
Case against Harris
For all the strength he had as a nominee, there are also issues that Harris has fought as vice president and as a presidential candidate in 2020. And they could haunt him if the Democrats win the 2024 presidential nomination
Notably, although he is liked by several Democratic constituencies, his overall favorability and approval numbers have not been the strongest. as Five Thirty Eight Aggregation Found, Biden has 37 percent approval from all US voters, compared to Harris 38 percent. And he’ll be seen as a continuation of the Biden administration, meaning he could be seen as just “the same” by voters who aren’t happy with the policies or positions it represents. According to polls from this past year, voters Interested in change and expressed dissatisfaction with the status quo.
Harris also hasn’t always defined himself — and what he stands for — that clearly.
In 2020, this was evident in how he sought to adopt both progressive and moderate policy positions, seemingly losing members of both constituencies. He has particularly struggled with the left and his often young voters: despite his self-described stance as a progressive prosecutor, he was called out by grassroots progressives during the 2019 campaign for actions he took as well as wrongful convictions.
This same overriding problem emerged in his vice presidency, when some critics argued that he did not clearly establish what issues he owned or what he was able to achieve.
White House officials have previously highlighted her extensive work on foreign policy, immigration, voting rights and reproductive rights. It’s a broad portfolio, and staffers who work with him describe the Catch-22 it can feel like on Harris’s face: If he chooses to work on just one subject, for example, he risks being pigeonholed. If he works more broadly, as he chooses to do, he has been criticized for not being devoted to just one field.
And yet he has been an effective communicator in a number of high-profile cases, from Trump’s questioning of former Attorney General Jeff Sessions to a major 50th anniversary speech. RoHe has also been pilloried for making statements that are commonly referred to as “word saladThose comments have prompted some to wonder whether he will be able to be a strong enough messenger for Democrats at this crucial time.
His record with staff has also been scrutinized by journalists, with turnover occurring throughout his tenure in office, raising questions about his management style. There are stories about him Attorney General Office and His VP office Some workers described it as a difficult work environment that originated from above. Such reports raise concerns about what kind of leadership Harris will look like in the White House, though his office is far from the only one. Turnover seen This is the introduction.
And latent sexism and racism among voters is a key concern some Democrats have raised. “I don’t know that many people want to admit it, [but] I think there are a lot of people who are uncomfortable with a black woman being president,” Carter said. Candidates of color and women, including former President Barack Obama, have long had to navigate such bias — and electability concerns — though he managed to win in the end in spite of them.
Overall, this dynamic suggests that Harris’ nomination, like any other, will bring both advantages and disadvantages. In the difficult situation Democrats find themselves in, Harris’ strengths may outweigh his weaknesses — if he can address them.
