Iran’s reformist President-elect Masoud Pezheshkian narrowly won the Islamic Republic’s election on Sunday over a hard-line candidate. But given the long-term priorities of the clerics who are Iran’s ultimate source of power, Pezeshkian will be able to make only limited changes in certain areas — and any reforms he successfully implements are not guaranteed to last beyond his term.
Pezeshkian’s victory reveals something about both the regime led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the mood of ordinary Iranians. The mere fact that he was able to run – presidential candidates are determined by a group of clerics called the Guardian Council – indicates that Khamenei and his allies, who oversee most of Iran’s government, understand that people are dissatisfied with the status quo, especially following the 2022 protests and women’s , Life, a brutal crackdown on the freedom movement.
Still, there is a strong element of the Iranian electorate that opposes reform, as evidenced by Pezheshkian’s rival, Former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili is a radical — and The final margin between the two of them was quite slim. Although it is important to view the results with a certain level of skepticism given the frequent dishonesty of Iran’s leadership, the regime threw its resources behind Jalili and clearly wanted him to win. And the fact that almost half of the electorate voted for Jalili shows a high level of polarization.
Complicating any attempt to make a decision from polling is widespread abstention A vote boycott Organized by activists because of women, life, freedom movements or simply voter apathy. But its About 50 percent of eligible voters Of those who cast a ballot, the majority voted for someone who at least promised to limit change, increase transparency and combat partisanship, and try to improve people’s lives.
“Part of the precedent we’ve seen before is that whenever a reformer — a real reformer — runs, they win,” He denied Mortazawi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, told Vox. “In a way, it was a surprise that he was allowed to run. But I wasn’t surprised that he won – even from the start, polls showed him ahead. So it still shows that … the majority of those who voted believe in reforms and are dissatisfied.”
Reforms are possible under Pezeshkian, but only in limited ways
Although Iran has a new president, Supreme Leader Khamenei and the Guardian Council are the ultimate decision-makers, especially when it comes to foreign relations. Pezheshkian would be able to make limited changes within the domestic sphere, but would still have to work within the framework of Iran’s theocratic system.
“The president has ambitions and he has made them clear in the social sphere, in the economic sphere and potentially in Iran’s foreign relations.” Sanam Wakil British think tank Chatham House. “But what the president needs to do to succeed is to build consensus across Iran’s political spectrum, working through and with conservatively dominated Iranian institutions. So right now, without that consensus and without that support from within, he won’t have much room for maneuver.”
It’s not clear that Pezeshkian will be able to build that consensus. His campaign has had little institutional support, and although he has pledged to work across party lines, there has yet to be a real signal of buy-in from conservatives. Pezeshkian may come from the reformist wing of parliament, but he is committed to working with and within the Islamic Republic and the regime.
“He is not really a frontier reformer, militant or ideological reformer,” Ali Wayz, Director of the International Crisis Group’s Iran Program. “That’s why he’s survived so long in the system.”
That said, there are places where Pezeshkian can make change — primarily in a social capacity, such as easing the hijab laws that sparked massive, violent protests in 2022. The protests in the months that followed were a response to Mahsa Amini’s death, but they also reflected people’s anger at the oppressive conditions under Peshkejian’s hardline predecessor, the cleric Ibrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash in May. Anger at the ultimately deplorable economic conditions combined with racial discrimination, restrictions and strictures on women’s behavior, bureaucratic mismanagement, and government corruption began after Amini’s death.
During the campaign, Pezeshkian condemned Amini’s death in custody and the subsequent crackdown on the protest movement, which left many dead and thousands in prison. Softening hijab rules “could make a difference in enforcement as far as the level of violence and harassment,” Mortazawi said.
There is precedent for that; When politicians from reformist factions (factions rather than parties—Iran has no political parties) come into office, strict enforcement of such laws has been reduced. “It’s not something where we’re speculating or predicting, it’s something we’ve seen before [Hassan] Rouhani,” Mortazawi said. Rouhani was the reformist president who helped negotiate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, in 2015.
Pezeshkian could do more to serve ethnic minorities such as the Kurdish population, Arabs, Baloch and Azeris. Pezeshkian himself Kurds and Azeri and from Azerbaijan province, which has a large minority population and is a province that has long suffered from underinvestment and a harsh crackdown on protests there.
The economy — a serious issue for voters of nearly every background and political disposition — could also be a place where Pezeshkian could move the needle and help improve people’s lives. But his power will be limited because Iran’s economic woes are caused by three interconnected factors: heavy US sanctions; These sanctions resulted in widespread corruption and profiteering, particularly among elements of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; and mismanagement.
Like Rouhani, Pezeshkian “could try to make a smaller deal with Washington to allow some more sanctions relief or an increase in oil sales,” Vakil said.
Pezeshkian may try to reduce inflation, which currently stands at around 50 percent, as well as introduce policies to remove Iran from the International Anti-Money Laundering Group’s Financial Action Task Force blacklist, which would help open trade, particularly with China.
“These minimal differences are important to people,” Vaez said, because it gives them “the ability to live a relatively normal life.”
In Iran, some things are non-negotiable – so Pezeshkian can’t do much
Pezeshkian was pretty clear during the campaign about what he could and couldn’t do — for example, he has little influence with the judiciary, so he could probably do little to improve the conditions of political prisoners.
And while Pezeshkian has expressed a desire to be more open to the West in particular, “he’s not proposing a grand bargain with the United States or the West,” Vakil said. There are also obstacles to such engagement – primarily the reluctance of the United States to do so.
Although restrictions are being eased through New nuclear commitments would benefit Iran’s economy, efforts to do so would face “very serious pushback” from so-called “sanctions traders” — officials and those close to them who profit, for example, from selling black-market goods, according to Vaz.
Pezeshkian, whose clean record is likely part of his appeal to voters tired of political abuse, has also come around to the idea of reducing corruption, but it too will have limited reach.
“It would be useful to pursue a really deep and meaningful anti-corruption campaign, but that’s going to be impossible,” Vakil said. Instead, more transparency around contracts and decision-making may amount to Pezeshkian’s reforms.
Given regional dynamics, little change is likely; He encouraged continued dialogue with Saudi Arabia, After the capture of former enemies in 2023. And Some reporting suggests that Pezeshkian and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah have assured each other of their ongoing support. “The Islamic Republic has always supported the resistance of the people of the region against the illegal Zionist regime,” Pezeshkian said It is said that he wrote a letter to Nasrallah.
Pezeshkian has little control over the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, so even if he hopes to significantly change regional dynamics, it will be impossible.
Ultimately, the new president is not going to radically change Iran anytime soon. Pezeshkian will fundamentally change little in the long term, although he may improve the lives of ordinary Iranians in the short term.
