The biggest question in politics right now is what a second Trump administration will actually look like. The most honest answer is that no one knows for sure: its leader is so chaotic, and his followers so divided against themselves, that predicting anything with absolute confidence is a fool’s errand.
With that in mind, I still want to engage in a bit of an exercise: to try to lay out what I think is true about the American right, and then make some tentative predictions about the incoming Trump administration based on those premises.
The idea is not just to guess for the sake of guessing. Rather, it’s about making some testable predictions for my view of Trump and what’s right—to see if my assumptions are pointing me in the right direction, and to adjust them if they turn out to be wrong. I will review that retrospective in my newsletter on the right; If you’re interested and/or want a chance to tell me I’m wrong, please subscribe!
Let’s start with the premise: the things I think are true about right things today.
Most people talking about “right” today are talking about the Trump coalition. Obviously, ownership of being “on the right” is contested—many Never Trumpers claim to be true conservatives and label Trump followers as sellouts. But at this point, with Trump and his allies firmly in control of the GOP and its affiliated outside agencies, the right to actually exist as a political force is mostly just the Trump coalition. The coalition includes people of varying degrees of ideological fervor, from Stephen Miller-style true believers to more reluctant knee-jerk, but it is still a coalition aligned behind a particular leader.
The first unifying principle of right is anti-liberalism. The various factions of the Trump coalition share a core belief that American liberalism is worse than merely wrong: It is an actively harmful force in American public life. Liberals, in their view, are not merely political opponents but enemies—a threat to America itself. It supports extreme measures against them.
The second unifying principle of the right is the person of Donald Trump. Trump is not merely the leader of the Republican Party: he is a charismatic figure with a unique personal power, an uncanny ability to follow the majority of Republican voters wherever he appears to be leading. This is why no one on the right can get on Trump’s bad side for long and stay in good standing; They are all following where he leads.
The right’s wholesale turn against democracy is a byproduct of these two policies, and will define Trump’s agenda. Trump’s personal obsession with denying his defeat in 2020 and justifying his coup attempt has set the tone for much of today’s Republican politics — including plans to purge the federal government during the next administration. Some more traditional Republicans may voice concerns about Trump taking it too far, but they’ll ultimately go along with it because they either fear Trump or hate liberals more than they care about the rules. Because of this, the desire to subvert democracy has become a rare point of consensus on the modern right.
Outside these areas of agreement, rights are deeply fragmented. There are many different factions within the Trump coalition – including MAGA ideologues like Miller and Steve BannonTraditionalist pre-Trump Republicans like Marco Rubio, “postmodern” authoritarians like JD Vance, and techno-rightists like Elon Musk. These various parties disagree on even key issues like immigration and tariffs, much less issues like government spending.
This, at any rate, is my starting point. Before that, I want to make nine specific predictions that (mostly) follow directly.
1) Trump will try to purge the federal civil service. If Trump is really serious about retaliation and his anti-democratic desire for personal control over the federal government, this is the obvious place to start. I would expect efforts along these lines – most notably a revival Schedule F Executive Order – To begin relatively quickly after he assumed power.
2) Internal conflict will be a major problem for the Trump administration on most policy issues. Trump’s first administration was largely influenced by the divide between Trumpists and the “adults in the room.” If the latter is largely purged, divisions among Trump supporters will take center stage in a second Trump term. And the baseline condition that created an opportunity for the “adult” faction in 2016 — Trump’s chaotic management style and disinterest in policy details — will create plenty of opportunities for different factions to work at cross purposes with each other.
3) The fate of the tariff will be a bellwether for this fight — but I expect the pro-tariff side to prevail. Tariffs are one of Trump’s signature policy ideas, but they are deeply opposed by his allies in the business community. has already been A Washington Post piece Behind the scenes some deputies are trying to limit the scope of the tariffs, a trial balloon Trump is reporting. loud off. Given Trump’s unusual level of personal investment in policy here, I expect he will (mostly) get his way.
4) So will Trump’s approach to China – and I would expect Hakimi. There’s been a lot of noise about Trump’s alleged bigotry, and of course there’s more separatist pressure in the MAGA movement. But in the past, more aggressive impulses have prevailed in MAGA — emotions more in line with the more traditional Republican foreign movement. China policy is a key test here, and I would expect the administration to take a generally confrontational stance.
5) Elon Musk will prove less important than he was. Musk talks a big game, but his “department of government expertise” isn’t a real department and he has no formal authority. There is no evidence that Musk understands how Washington works or even has a coherent and stable set of political ideas besides pursuing his own financial interests. There’s also a very real possibility that his huge ego might bump up against Trump, leading to a messy fight that Trump will almost certainly win.
6) But will prove superrich as a class more More important than they think. All the focus on Musk personally has distracted from the more mundane impact of his class on the GOP: the way they set the tone for policy on a range of issues, from environmental regulation to taxation to anti-trust enforcement. The rich will dictate the terms of Trump 2’s economic policies, with exceptions to tariffs rather than the rule.
7) The GOP is likely to peter out the anti-corporate turn. During the first Trump and Biden administrations, there was much right-wing talk about the dangers of a conservative Republican turn against “weak capital” and corporations. I’ve always been a bit skeptical that this would continue with the business community Gradually bending the knee to TrumpI hope such talk will quietly disappear.
8) But the war against the “awakening” will continue. Culture wars are the least common manifestation of the right’s entrenched anti-liberalism. It is central to the GOP’s current appeal to its base, and will forever remain a central component of its message. Perhaps the word “awakening” will cease to be used, a new age will feel tired, but there will be an obsessive focus on race, sexuality, gender and immigration.
9) So will support Israel. While it’s true that anti-Semitic bigots like Candace Owens and Nick Fuentes have recently become more prominent in the GOP, support for Israel remains. Very popular reason Among most mainstream Republicans. And far-right movements around the world have developed a model of being pro-Israel while simultaneously threatening Jews at home, a model that Trump himself followed in his first term. If Israel takes more aggressive steps in the coming years — like rehabilitating Gaza or annexing parts of the West Bank — I expect the Trump administration to largely get on board.
