D Increase in crime rate The 2020s cemented the response to progressive criminal justice reform prompted by the pandemic. In the following years, lawmakers from both major parties passed legislation that rolled back changes to the criminal justice system that were aimed at reducing sentences and reducing the prison population. And in 2024, tough-on-crime laws, it seems, have made a decisive comeback.
In the past year, New York sends the National Guard to patrol New York City Subway, Louisiana pass a law 17-year-olds tried as adults, and Oregon criminal drugs It wasn’t criminal that long ago. It wasn’t just lawmakers who were eager to make these changes. Voters in San Francisco in March Authorized ballot system which expanded police surveillance and imposed drug testing on welfare recipients, and in November, California voters passed a ballot measure to toughen penalties for drug- and theft-related crimes, while Colorado voters Opted to reduce parole eligibility For those convicted of violent crimes.
The irritable mood clearly took hold over the successes won by progressive criminal justice advocates in the years leading up to the pandemic. And that despite the fact that, on average, the crime rate Actually fell From the year 2021.
The backlash is likely to continue in the coming year as Donald Trump returns to the White House and promises tougher laws on his campaign trail. Expanding the federal death penalty.
So what does the road ahead look like for criminal justice reform advocates?
Understanding feedback
In many ways, lawmakers are responding to public sentiment about crime. But as I’ve written several times over the past year, how people feel about crime doesn’t always reflect what crime trends actually look like. In fact, it almost never does. Over the past two decades, polls have consistently shown that A majority of Americans believe Crime was getting worse, although during that same period, crime rates generally fell year over year.
But that doesn’t mean people are completely deviant and crime isn’t something lawmakers should take seriously. after all, The US is a more violent country Compared to his peers, and lawmakers need to address that fact. It’s also the case that after a real spike in crime — especially violent crime like murder, rape and assault — as it did in 2020, people can be understandably worried and slow to digest the good news.
Where lawmakers go wrong, however how They respond to public sentiment. It is very difficult to identify the causes of crime waves or figure out how to reduce crime in the short term. The response may reduce public fear by reflexively passing crime-on-crime measures, but does not necessarily solve the problem. In fact, when politicians try to compete with each other over who or which party is tough on crime, they contribute to a vicious feedback loop that only reinforces the idea that crime is spiraling out of control. Law enforcement campaigns, for example, exaggerate and often lie about crime trends. And so instead of reassuring the public that things are getting better, lawmakers are just adding fuel to the fire.
What this means for 2025 and beyond
Major policy changes constantly go through a push and pull, and criminal justice reform is no different. Tough-on-crime laws that were adopted across the country In the 1990s, much harsher punishments were imposedincluding long sentences that contribute to a growing incarceration population. But as the prison population peaked in the late 2000s, the public’s view of the criminal justice system changed, and many reforms—including reduced sentences, the elimination of cash bail, and the expansion of parole—were passed and reduced the number of people in prison. United States of America
Now, as opposed to reforms, we already are The prison population sees a rise again After more than a decade of slow but steady decline. Given the consistency of the backlash and how widespread it appears to be, with voters themselves passing tougher crime laws, criminal justice reform advocates will face an uphill battle in the coming years.
While public attitudes toward criminal justice reform have clearly changed, some lessons from the criminal justice reform movement have stuck around. Americans, for example, Support decriminalization and legalization of marijuana – something that at least five other states did in 2023, According to the Prison Policy Initiative.
There are also signs that efforts to pass more lenient sentencing laws may yet succeed. Just this year, for example, became Massachusetts First state to ban life without parole For people under 21 years of age. It was followed by other states, including Illinois, Minnesota and New Mexico That penalty has been waived for those under 18 In 2023.
And while Trump may roll back some of the progress made at the federal level, there is reason to believe that criminal justice reform advocates will eventually see friendly zones in Democratic states where governors seek to draw sharp contrasts with the incoming president, potentially opening up. Window for more progressive reform.
So while 2024 may be the year of the tough-on-crime comeback, it’s still too soon to say whether the response to criminal justice reform is here to stay.
