Many important issues are at stake in the 2024 elections: foreign policyReproductive rights, immigration, the future of American democracy.
But one thing came out of the first debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump that crowded them all: Biden’s performance.
Biden’s reasoning for agreeing to this historically early presidential debate was, in part, to try to put to rest concerns about his age. Instead, they are supercharged. Multiple reports shortly after the debate claimed that top Democrats were absolutely horrified by how Biden arrived on stage. Major media outlets wrote that Biden “struggled“and appear”shaky“
Biden is the oldest president ever, and Republicans have long tried to push an exaggerated narrative that he is wise. He didn’t seem old on stage – but he didn’t seem sharp either. He spoke very softly, his answers were often sloppy on substance, and when he had decent lines they were usually interrupted by his halting and understated delivery.
Biden told NBC News in the middle of that debate have a cold, indicating his influence was a one-off fluke. The risk, though, is that voters decide after seeing that he’s not ready for the job he wants to hold. After all, it was the most prolonged look at Biden in such a hostile environment that we’ve had in a while, and he didn’t come off well.
Trump’s performance was no slouch: He rambled and rambled, rambling and incoherent. But he did it more energetically — and more, he was typical Trump, no one would be surprised by what he said or how he said it.
On one level, all of the above is so shallow and superficial that I feel a little embarrassed to write it. Politics should be more than theater criticism and influence. It is about important issues that will affect the lives of millions of people
Unfortunately, the question of what a relatively small group of swing voters think about Joe Biden’s age hinges on the 2024 election. Many Democrats think they have a winning argument against Trump on this issue, but they worry that Biden simply cannot make the case. So the most immediate consequence of Thursday’s debate will be rekindled chatter about whether Biden should even be in the race or whether there are still other options for Democrats. And that conclusion creates a clear set of takeaways for race in the wake of this debate.
Loser: Joe Biden
No need to belabor the point: If the debate ends with your side debating whether you should even be in the race, it’s clear you’ve lost.
The Biden “age problem” is really a combination of several separate things. Again, there is the exaggerated right-wing narrative that he is old. There are natural anxieties associated with aging that slow people down mentally and physically. There are questions about whether his health will hold up for a second term. There is the question of whether any of this has hindered his decision-making or governance (I don’t believe it has; it’s hard to give an example of an administration that would be different if he were Joe Biden but younger).
But there is a more difficult concern for Biden to dismiss: that he has failed to properly “perform” the role of president or presidential candidate. That he wasn’t as good at seeming as if he was in command, like he could handle energetic, tough questions and get the job done.
This is where he most clearly failed during the debate.
For many elite Democrats, concern about Biden’s age is largely a meta-concern: It’s about what swing voters will think about Biden’s age. If that’s your rubric, it doesn’t matter if you think he’s doing a great job as president; What matters is what swing voters think. And it’s hard to believe that many liked what they saw Thursday.
Winner: Donald Trump
By default, in a two-person contest, Trump won the debate because of Biden’s weakness. But his performance was not particularly impressive.
As usual, Trump shied away from his perennial allegations (“Russia Russia Russia,” “laptops,” James Comey, false claims of 2020 election fraud). He lied, said ridiculous things and avoided questions. He also missed opportunities: Biden was shaky enough that a more disciplined and intelligent Republican candidate could have embarrassed him much more — for example, by raising questions directly to him and actually throwing him off.
Trump has benefited from his attempts to steal the 2020 election and his relative lack of recent criminal convictions. And perhaps the way he won the most was the debate that normalized him: his attack on American democracy was just one issue among many, only halfway there.
Affected: The main point
Look, with these two candidates on stage, it didn’t seem particularly likely that this debate would be an enlightened and concise exchange on policy issues. Don’t worry, Trump lies constantly, and every debate he participates in turns into a mudslinging contest.
Still, for anyone interested in the material, the controversy was a truly unpleasant one.
On abortion, Trump accused Biden of wanting to kill the 9-month-old baby and Biden struggled to explain Roe v. WadeIts three-quarter structure. On climate change, Trump bragged that the country had clean air and “H2O” while he was president. On the economy, Biden claimed that Trump destroyed the economy in 2020, while Trump claimed that Biden only caused inflation and only created jobs for immigrants — all lies.
The nadir was an extremely silly exchange in which both candidates insulted each other’s golf games. “I’m happy to play golf if you carry your own bag,” Biden said. Trump responded by mocking Biden’s “swing.” Why?
Winner: Kamala Harris
In March, Biden’s fiery State of the Union address calmed many concerns among Democrats about whether he was up to the rigors of another campaign. Now, the debate has been opened again.
It will take more time (and poll numbers) to determine how serious Biden’s loss is. Perhaps mainly political die-hards who made up their minds were watching this debate for the first time. The media may focus on Biden’s age for a while, but attention will inevitably shift to other issues.
Still, the chances of Kamala Harris becoming the Democratic presidential nominee for 2024 are, in my opinion, higher than they ever were after the debate.
The Democratic National Convention is in late August. Biden won the primary and most of the Democratic delegates pledged to him, so he can’t be pushed completely against his will. But if the team’s power players tell him he needs to step down — and he listens — then Harris will be the obvious next in line.
When this scenario has been discussed, it has often been about an “open” conference, where delegates get together Somehow choosing their own nominees, like in the old political era. My guess is that it would be much more messy and impractical, and it would be very difficult to build coordination and consensus around an alternative. There are doubts within the party about Harris’ political strength, but if Democratic elites agree that Biden is fatally politically flawed, they will be more likely to roll the dice with him.
For now, dethroning Biden still seems highly unlikely. But that seems less unlikely than Thursday morning.
